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Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…
We investigate the parameter estimation of regression models with fixed group effects, when the group variable is missing while group related variables are available. This problem involves clustering to infer the missing group variable…
The composite quantile regression (CQR) was introduced by Zou and Yuan [Ann. Statist. 36 (2008) 1108--1126] as a robust regression method for linear models with heavy-tailed errors while achieving high efficiency. Its penalized counterpart…
We propose a density-free method for frequentist inference on population quantiles, termed Self-Normalized Quantile Empirical Saddlepoint Approximation (SNQESA). The approach builds a self-normalized pivot from the indicator score for a…
Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…
A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…
Risk assessment for extreme events requires accurate estimation of high quantiles that go beyond the range of historical observations. When the risk depends on the values of observed predictors, regression techniques are used to interpolate…
Data derived from remote sensing or numerical simulations often have a regular gridded structure and are large in volume, making it challenging to find accurate spatial models that can fill in missing grid cells or simulate the process…
Among semiparametric regression models, partially linear additive models provide a useful tool to include additive nonparametric components as well as a parametric component, when explaining the relationship between the response and a set…
We present Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE), a novel Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) method based on conditional quantile regression. NQE autoregressively learns individual one dimensional quantiles for each posterior dimension,…
Traditional Bayesian quantile regression relies on the Asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) mainly because of its satisfactory empirical and theoretical performances. However, the ALD displays medium tails and it is not suitable for data…
Nonparametric methods have been very popular in the last couple of decades in time series and regression, but no such development has taken place for spatial models. A rather obvious reason for this is the curse of dimensionality. For…
This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…
Extreme quantile regression provides estimates of conditional quantiles outside the range of the data. Classical quantile regression performs poorly in such cases since data in the tail region are too scarce. Extreme value theory is used…
Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric…
This paper considers the problem of nonparametric quantile regression under the assumption that the target conditional quantile function is a composition of a sequence of low-dimensional functions. We study the nonparametric quantile…
Quantile regression, that is the prediction of conditional quantiles, has steadily gained importance in statistical modeling and financial applications. The authors introduce a new semiparametric quantile regression method based on…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
It is possible to approach regression analysis with random covariates from a semiparametric perspective where information is combined from multiple multivariate sources. The approach assumes a semiparametric density ratio model where…
This paper extends the horseshoe prior of Carvalho et al. (2010) to Bayesian quantile regression (HS-BQR) and provides a fast sampling algorithm for computation in high dimensions. The performance of the proposed HS-BQR is evaluated on…