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Accurate models of patient survival probabilities provide important information to clinicians prescribing care for life-threatening and terminal ailments. A recently developed class of models - known as individual survival distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-27 Samuel Sokota , Ryan D'Orazio , Khurram Javed , Humza Haider , Russell Greiner

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event data in healthcare, engineering, and finance, where censored observations pose significant challenges. While traditional methods like the Beran estimator offer nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Andrei V. Konstantinov , Vlada A. Efremenko , Lev V. Utkin

Introduction In analysis of time-to-event outcomes, a mixture cure (MC) model is preferred over a standard survival model when the sample includes individuals who will never experience the event of interest. Motivated by a cohort study of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-02 Changchang Xu , Laurent Briollais , Irene L Andrulis , Shelley B Bull

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-04-24 Anna Machens , Francesco Gesualdo , Caterina Rizzo , Alberto E Tozzi , Alain Barrat , Ciro Cattuto

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy…

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Yuan Bian , Grace Y. Yi , Wenqing He

Time to an event of interest over a lifetime is a central measure of the clinical benefit of an intervention used in a health technology assessment (HTA). Within the same trial, multiple end-points may also be considered. For example,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-13 Nathan Green , Murat Kurt , Andriy Moshyk , James Larkin , Gianluca Baio

Given the prominence of targeted therapy and immunotherapy in cancer treatment, it becomes imperative to consider heterogeneity in patients' responses to treatments, which contributes greatly to the widely used proportional hazard…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-01 Powei Chen , Siying Hu , Haojin Zhou

Many epidemiological and clinical studies aim at analyzing a time-to-event endpoint. A common complication is right censoring. In some cases, it arises because subjects are still surviving after the study terminates or move out of the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Andrew Ying

We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xinyu Zhang , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

In this paper we address the challenges posed by non-proportional hazards and informative censoring, offering a path toward more meaningful causal inference conclusions. We start from the marginal structural Cox model, which has been widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-15 Jiyu Luo , Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic , Ronghui Xu

Performance monitoring of machine learning (ML)-based risk prediction models in healthcare is complicated by the issue of confounding medical interventions (CMI): when an algorithm predicts a patient to be at high risk for an adverse event,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-17 Jean Feng , Alexej Gossmann , Gene Pennello , Nicholas Petrick , Berkman Sahiner , Romain Pirracchio

We consider continuous-time survival or more general event-history settings, where the aim is to infer the causal effect of a time-dependent treatment process. This is formalised as the effect on the outcome event of a (possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kjetil Røysland , Pål Ryalen , Mari Nygård , Vanessa Didelez

I propose a new type of confidence interval for correct asymptotic inference after using data to select a model of interest without assuming any model is correctly specified. This hybrid confidence interval is constructed by combining…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Adam McCloskey

Observational studies of recurrent event rates are common in biomedical statistics. Broadly, the goal is to estimate differences in event rates under two treatments within a defined target population over a specified followup window.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-13 Arman Oganisian , Anthony Girard , Jon A. Steingrimsson , Patience Moyo

Electronic health record (EHR) data is sparse and irregular as it is recorded at irregular time intervals, and different clinical variables are measured at each observation point. In this work, we propose a multi-view features integration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-27 Yurim Lee , Eunji Jun , Heung-Il Suk

Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-12-28 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

When using the Cox model to analyze the effect of a time-varying treatment on a survival outcome, treatment is commonly included, using only the current level as a time-dependent covariate. Such a model does not necessarily assume that past…

The Cox regression, a semi-parametric method of survival analysis, is extremely popular in biomedical applications. The proportional hazards assumption is a key requirement in the Cox model. To accommodate non-proportional hazards, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Alexander Begun , Elena Kulinskaya

Sepsis is a severe condition responsible for many deaths in the United States and worldwide, making accurate prediction of outcomes crucial for timely and effective treatment. Previous studies employing machine learning faced limitations in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Arseniy Shumilov , Yueting Zhu , Negin Ashrafi , Armin Abdollahi , Greg Placencia , Kamiar Alaei , Maryam Pishgar
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