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Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…
We propose a method (TT-GP) for approximate inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. We build on previous scalable GP research including stochastic variational inference based on inducing inputs, kernel interpolation, and structure…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian non-parametric models popular in a variety of applications due to their accuracy and native uncertainty quantification (UQ). Tuning GP hyperparameters is critical to ensure the validity of prediction…
In many real-world applications we are interested in approximating costly functions that are analytically unknown, e.g. complex computer codes. An emulator provides a fast approximation of such functions relying on a limited number of…
A key challenge in the practical application of Gaussian processes (GPs) is selecting a proper covariance function. The moving average, or process convolutions, construction of GPs allows some additional flexibility, but still requires…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a general and analytically tractable way of modeling complex time-varying, nonparametric functions. The Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) system constructs natural-language description of…
Although Gaussian processes (GPs) with deep kernels have been successfully used for meta-learning in regression tasks, its uncertainty estimation performance can be poor. We propose a meta-learning method for calibrating deep kernel GPs for…
Gaussian Process (GP) models are popular tools in uncertainty quantification (UQ) because they purport to furnish functional uncertainty estimates that can be used to represent model uncertainty. It is often difficult to state with…
In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…
The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to large data sets is limited due to heavy memory and computational requirements. A variety of methods has been proposed to enable scalability, one of which is to exploit structure in the kernel…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is widely used for uncertainty quantification, yet the standard formulation assumes noise-free covariates. When inputs are measured with error, this errors-in-variables (EIV) setting can lead to…
Many inferential tasks involve fitting models to observed data and predicting outcomes at new covariate values, requiring interpolation or extrapolation. Conventional methods select a single best-fitting model, discarding fits that were…
Mechanistic simulation models are inverted against observations in order to gain inference on modeled processes. However, with the increasing ability to collect high resolution observations, these observations represent more patterns of…
In this work we study the non-parametric reconstruction of spatio-temporal dynamical Gaussian processes (GPs) via GP regression from sparse and noisy data. GPs have been mainly applied to spatial regression where they represent one of the…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a Bayesian nonparametric method for regression and interpolation, offering a principled way of quantifying the uncertainties of predicted function values. For the quantified uncertainties to be…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a gold standard for performance in online settings, such as sample-efficient control and black box optimization, where we need to update a posterior distribution as we acquire data in a sequential fashion.…