Related papers: Predictability of north Pacific blocking events : …
We use a simple yet Earth-like atmospheric model to propose a new framework for understanding the mathematics of blocking events. Analysing error growth rates along a very long model trajectory, we show that blockings are associated with…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
This study delves into the predictability of atmospheric blocking, zonal, and transition patterns utilizing a simplified coupled model. Initially, we comprehensively scrutinize the model's responses to environmental parameters like solar…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…
In this paper, we explore optimal disturbances of blockings in the equivalent barotropic atmosphere using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Considering the initial blocking amplitude, the optimal disturbance…
Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
Observations from the RAPID array near 26.5$^\circ$N indicate a linear decline in the AMOC over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western boundary contribution partly compensated by strengthening at…
This paper focuses on block likelihood estimation for geostatistical data, a method that balances statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Central to this approach is the choice of block size, which can significantly impact…
Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…
Atmospheric blocking events drive persistent weather extremes in midlatitudes, but isolating the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) from chaotic internal atmospheric variability on these events remains a challenge. We address this…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are characterized by wind-triggered upwelling of deep waters along the coast. They are hotspots of biological productivity and diversity and therefore have a high economic, ecological and social…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
Various regions in the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes have seen pronounced trends in upper-atmosphere summer circulation and surface temperature extremes over recent decades (since 1979). Several of these regional trends lie outside the…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Decadal-scale interactions between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in global climate variability through bidirectional teleconnections. Current climate models show persistent biases in representing these basin…