Related papers: Effortless, Simulation-Efficient Bayesian Inferenc…

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs…

X-ray spectral fitting in high-energy astrophysics can be reliably accelerated using Machine Learning. In particular, Simulation-based Inference (SBI) produces accurate posterior distributions in the Gaussian and Poisson regime for…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) offer uncertainty quantification but come with the downside of substantially increased training and inference costs. Sparse BNNs have been investigated for efficient inference, typically by either slowly…

Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) represent a paradigm shift in tabular data prediction. We present the principles of this new paradigm and evaluate two PFNs for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a binary treatment on a…

Bayesian neural networks offer better estimates of model uncertainty compared to frequentist networks. However, inference involving Bayesian models requires multiple instantiations or sampling of the network parameters, requiring…

Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The…

Simulation-based inference methods have been shown to be inaccurate in the data-poor regime, when training simulations are limited or expensive. Under these circumstances, the inference network is particularly prone to overfitting, and…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is the preferred framework for estimating parameters of intractable models in science and engineering. A significant challenge in this context is the large computational cost of simulating data from complex…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a statistical inference approach for estimating latent parameters of a physical system when the likelihood is intractable but simulations are available. In practice, SBI is often hindered by model…

Foundation models for tabular data, such as the Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network (TabPFN), are pre-trained on a massive number of synthetic datasets generated by structural causal models (SCM). They leverage in-context learning to offer…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables Bayesian analysis when the likelihood is intractable but model simulations are available. Recent advances in statistics and machine learning, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and deep…

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in…

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) refers to statistical inference on stochastic models for which we can generate samples, but not compute likelihoods. Like SBI algorithms, generative adversarial networks (GANs) do not require explicit…

Modern simulation-based inference techniques use neural networks to solve inverse problems efficiently. One notable strategy is neural posterior estimation (NPE), wherein a neural network parameterizes a distribution to approximate the…

Clustering tabular data is a fundamental yet challenging problem due to heterogeneous feature types, diverse data-generating mechanisms, and the absence of transferable inductive biases across datasets. Prior-fitted networks (PFNs) have…

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

Computational models are invaluable in capturing the complexities of real-world biological processes. Yet, the selection of appropriate algorithms for inference tasks, especially when dealing with real-world observational data, remains a…

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…