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In this paper we prove scalar and sample path large deviation principles for a large class of Poisson cluster processes. As a consequence, we provide a large deviation principle for ergodic Hawkes point processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Charles Bordenave , Giovanni Luca Torrisi

We study the tail asymptotics of two functionals (the maximum and the sum of the marks) of a generic cluster in two sub-models of the marked Poisson cluster process, namely the renewal Poisson cluster process and the Hawkes process. Under…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Fabien Baeriswyl , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Wintenberger

For a class of additive processes driven by the affine recursion $X_{n+1} = A_n X_n + B_n$, we develop a sample-path large deviations principle in the $M_1'$ topology on $D [0,1]$. We allow $B_n$ to have both signs and focus on the case…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Bohan Chen , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

In this paper, we develop sample path large deviations for multivariate Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed mutual excitation rates. Our results address a broad class of rare events in Hawkes processes at the sample path level and, via the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-01 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

We study point processes that consist of certain centers of point tuples of an underlying Poisson process. Such processes arise in stochastic geometry in the study of exceedances of various functionals describing geometric properties of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-26 Moritz Otto

Various functional limit theorems for partial sum processes of strictly stationary sequences of regularly varying random variables in the space of cadlag functions $D[0,1]$ with one of the Skorohod topologies have already been obtained. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-23 Danijel Krizmanic

Skorokhod's M1 topology is defined for c\`adl\`ag paths taking values in the space of tempered distributions (more generally, in the dual of a countably Hilbertian nuclear space). Compactness and tightness characterisations are derived…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-09 Sean Ledger

We consider the Voronoi tessellation based on a homogeneous Poisson point process in $\mathbf{R}^{d}$. For a geometric characteristic of the cells (e.g. the inradius, the circumradius, the volume), we investigate the point process of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-15 Nicolas Chenavier , Christian Robert

In this paper, we study small noise asymptotics of Markov-modulated diffusion processes in the regime that the modulating Markov chain is rapidly switching. We prove the joint sample-path large deviations principle for the Markov-modulated…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Gang Huang , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We consider stationary configurations of points in Euclidean space which are marked by positive random variables called scores. The scores are allowed to depend on the relative positions of other points and outside sources of randomness.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Bojan Basrak , Ilya Molchanov , Hrvoje Planinić

We derive functional convergence of the partial maxima stochastic processes of multivariate linear processes with weakly dependent heavy-tailed innovations and random coefficients. The convergence takes place in the space of…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Danijel Krizmanic

We prove a sample path large deviation principle (LDP) with sub-linear speed for unbounded functionals of certain Markov chains induced by the Lindley recursion. The LDP holds in the Skorokhod space $\mathbb{D}[0,T]$ equipped with the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-03 Mihail Bazhba , Jose Blanchet , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

Classical peaks over threshold analysis is widely used for statistical modeling of sample extremes, and can be supplemented by a model for the sizes of clusters of exceedances. Under mild conditions a compound Poisson process model allows…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-14 Mária Süveges , Anthony C. Davison

We consider stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems simply by evaluating an observable function along the orbits of the system and study marked point processes associated to extremal observations of such time series…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-07 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mário Magalhães

In this paper we study the weak convergence of self-normalized partial sum processes in the Skorokhod M1 topology for sequences of random variables which exhibit clustering of large values of the same sign. We show that for stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-17 Christis Katsouris

We study the cluster size distribution of particles for a two-species exclusion process which involves totally asymmetric transport process of two oppositely directed species with stochastic directional switching of the species on a 1D…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-13 Jim Chacko , Sudipto Muhuri , Goutam Tripathy

The normalised partial sums of values of a nonnegative multiplicative function over divisors with appropriately restricted sizes of a random permutation from the symmetric group define trajectories of a stochastic process. We prove a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Eugenijus Manstavičius

We establish, under the Cramer exponential moment condition in a neighbourhood of zero, the Extended Large Deviation Principle for the Random Walk and the Compound Poisson processes in the metric space $\V$ of functions of finite variation…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-01 F. C. Klebaner , A. A. Mogulskii

We consider a stationary random field indexed by an increasing sequence of subsets of $\mathbb{Z}^d$ obeying a very broad geometrical assumption on how the sequence expands. Under certain mixing and local conditions, we show how the tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Anders Rønn-Nielsen , Mads Stehr
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