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Robust estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is a fundamental challenge for optimal decision-making in domains ranging from personalized medicine to educational policy. In recent years, predictive machine learning has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani

The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-08 Jiawei Fu , Tara Slough

In this study, we compared two groups, in which subjects were assigned to either the treatment or the control group. In such trials, if the efficacy of the treatment cannot be demonstrated in a population that meets the eligibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

A central goal of causal inference is to detect and estimate the treatment effects of a given treatment or intervention on an outcome variable of interest, where a member known as the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) is of growing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Zijun Gao , Yanjun Han

The heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) lies at the heart of precision medicine. Randomized controlled trials are gold-standard for treatment effect estimation but are typically underpowered for heterogeneous effects. In contrast, large…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Shu Yang , Siyi Liu , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

We propose a novel multi-task neural network approach for estimating distributional treatment effects (DTE) in randomized experiments. While DTE provides more granular insights into the experiment outcomes over conventional methods focusing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Tomu Hirata , Undral Byambadalai , Tatsushi Oka , Shota Yasui , Shingo Uto

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-30 Max Goplerud , Kosuke Imai , Nicole E. Pashley

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are commonly identified during randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Identifying subgroups of patients with similar treatment effects is of high interest in clinical research to advance precision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Peniel N. Argaw , Elizabeth Healey , Isaac S. Kohane

Black-box heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) models are increasingly being used to create personalized policies that assign individuals to their optimal treatments. However, they are difficult to understand, and can be burdensome to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 Han Wu , Sarah Tan , Weiwei Li , Mia Garrard , Adam Obeng , Drew Dimmery , Shaun Singh , Hanson Wang , Daniel Jiang , Eytan Bakshy

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Jiayi Guo , Zijun Gao

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

This article proposes a meta-learning method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from a few observational data. The proposed method learns how to estimate CATEs from multiple tasks and uses the knowledge for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-22 Tomoharu Iwata , Yoichi Chikahara

In many clinical contexts, estimating effects of treatment in time-to-event data is complicated not only by confounding, censoring, and heterogeneity, but also by the presence of a cured subpopulation in which the event of interest never…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Yuqi Li , Quinn Lanners , Matthew M. Engelhard

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects has become increasingly important in many fields and life and death decisions are now based on these estimates: for example, selecting a personalized course of medical treatment. Recently, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-01 Sören R. Künzel , Simon J. S. Walter , Jasjeet S. Sekhon

The heterogeneous treatment effect plays a crucial role in precision medicine.There is evidence that real-world data, even subject to biases, can be employed as supplementary evidence for randomized clinical trials to improve the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Guangcai Mao , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang