Related papers: Situational Preparedness Dynamics for Sequential T…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Mid-Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs) are moist synoptic systems with distinct mid tropospheric vorticity maxima and weak signatures in the lower troposphere. Composites and statistics of MTCs over the tropics are constructed and compared with…
In the face of extreme events, e.g., hurricanes, the transmission systems, especially the transmission lines, are affected across time and space. To mitigate these impacts on the day-ahead market from a probabilistic perspective, a…
Heavy precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) may result in disasters, such as floods and landslides, leading to substantial economic damage and loss of life. Prediction of TC precipitation based on ensemble post-processing procedures…
We present a new model for reliability analysis that is able to distinguish the latent internal vulnerability state of the equipment from the vulnerability caused by temporary external sources. Consider a wind farm where each turbine is…
In recent decades, the weather around the world has become more irregular and extreme, often causing large-scale extended power outages. Resilience -- the capability of withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from a large-scale disruption…
he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…
The prediction of flight delays plays a significantly important role for airlines and travelers because flight delays cause not only tremendous economic loss but also potential security risks. In this work, we aim to integrate multiple data…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…
Industry reliability rules increasingly require utilities to study and mitigate cascading failure risk in their system. Motivated by this, this paper describes how cascading failure risk, in terms of expected blackout size, varies with…
Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, will have important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication…
Thermostatically-controlled-loads (TCLs) have been regarded as a good candidate for maintaining the power system reliability by providing operating reserve. The short-term reliability evaluation of power systems, which is essential for…
Extreme weather events are projected to intensify global migration, increase resource competition, and amplify socio-spatial phenomena, including intergroup conflicts, socioeconomic inequalities, and unplanned displacements, among others.…
This paper discusses the time series trend and variability of the cyclone frequencies over Bay of Bengal, particularly in order to conclude if there is any significant difference in the pattern visible before and after the disastrous 2004…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…
Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages,…
The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event…
In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…
A storm is a type of extreme weather. Therefore, forecasting the path of a storm is extremely important for protecting human life and property. However, storm forecasting is very challenging because storm trajectories frequently change. In…