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High-dimensional multivariate time series are common in many scientific and industrial applications, where the interest lies in identifying key dependence structure within the data for subsequent analysis tasks, such as forecasting. An…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Madeline A. Shelley , Chiara Boetti , Marina I. Knight , Matthew A. Nunes

Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Fahiem Bacchus , Adam J. Grove

We introduce a sufficient graphical model by applying the recently developed nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction techniques to the evaluation of conditional independence. The graphical model is nonparametric in nature, as it does not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-11 Bing Li , Kyongwon Kim

Graph neural networks are often used to model interacting dynamical systems since they gracefully scale to systems with a varying and high number of agents. While there has been much progress made for deterministic interacting systems,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir , Barbara Rakitsch , Jan Peters

The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-01 Alexander J. Gibberd , James D. B. Nelson

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Christiane Goergen , Manuele Leonelli

Estimating conditional independence graphs from high-dimensional Gaussian data is challenging because methods must detect relevant edges while rigorously controlling statistical errors. We propose a Bayesian framework based on a prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Roland B. Sogan , Tabea Rebafka , Fanny Villers

Probabilistic dependency graphs (PDGs) are a flexible class of probabilistic graphical models, subsuming Bayesian Networks and Factor Graphs. They can also capture inconsistent beliefs, and provide a way of measuring the degree of this…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Oliver E. Richardson , Joseph Y. Halpern , Christopher De Sa

The PC algorithm uses conditional independence tests for model selection in graphical modeling with acyclic directed graphs. In Gaussian models, tests of conditional independence are typically based on Pearson correlations, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-03 Naftali Harris , Mathias Drton

Traditional generalization results in statistical learning require a training data set made of independently drawn examples. Most of the recent efforts to relax this independence assumption have considered either purely temporal (mixing)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-14 Baptiste Abélès , Eugenio Clerico , Gergely Neu

In this contribution we deal with the problem of learning an undirected graph which encodes the conditional dependence relationship between variables of a complex system, given a set of observations of this system. This is a very central…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-26 Daniela De Canditiis , Armando Guardasole

Multivariate geostatistics is based on modelling all covariances between all possible combinations of two or more variables at any sets of locations in a continuously indexed domain. Multivariate spatial covariance models need to be built…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-10 Noel Cressie , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

Research in transportation frequently involve modelling and predicting attributes of events that occur at regular intervals. The event could be arrival of a bus at a bus stop, the volume of a traffic at a particular point, the demand at a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-08-14 Narayanan U. Edakunni , Aditi Raghunathan , Abhishek Tripathi , John Handley , Fredric Roulland

A fundamental computation for statistical inference and accurate decision-making is to compute the marginal probabilities or most probable states of task-relevant variables. Probabilistic graphical models can efficiently represent the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-28 KiJung Yoon , Renjie Liao , Yuwen Xiong , Lisa Zhang , Ethan Fetaya , Raquel Urtasun , Richard Zemel , Xaq Pitkow

Finding the parameters of a latent variable causal model is central to causal inference and causal identification. In this article, we show that existing graphical structures that are used in causal inference are not stable under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-03 Mehrzad Saremi

Graphical Gaussian models have proven to be useful tools for exploring network structures based on multivariate data. Applications to studies of gene expression have generated substantial interest in these models, and resulting recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Michael A. Finegold , Mathias Drton

Graphical interaction models have become an important tool for analysing multivariate time series. In these models, the interrelationships among the components of a time series are described by undirected graphs in which the vertices depict…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Michael Eichler

Graphical modeling explores dependences among a collection of variables by inferring a graph that encodes pairwise conditional independences. For jointly Gaussian variables, this translates into detecting the support of the precision…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Shota Katayama , Hironori Fujisawa , Mathias Drton

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-22 Chao Shang , Jie Chen , Jinbo Bi