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In high-throughput screenings, it is common to estimate the effects of many treatments using a small number of independent trials of each. Because little is known about the distributional properties of the measurements from these trials, it…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-17 Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-11 Tanja Zerenner , Francesco Di Lauro , Masoumeh Dashti , Luc Berthouze , Istvan Z. Kiss

This paper addresses patient heterogeneity associated with prediction problems in biomedical applications. We propose a systematic hypothesis testing approach to determine the existence of patient subgroup structure and the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-08 Xu Gao , Weining Shen , Jing Ning , Ziding Feng , Jianhua Hu

We give the first mathematically rigorous analysis of an emerging approach to finite element analysis (see, e.g., Bauer et al. [Appl. Numer. Math., 2017]), which we hereby refer to as the surrogate matrix methodology. This methodology is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-11 Daniel Drzisga , Brendan Keith , Barbara Wohlmuth

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Michael Rosenblum , Han Liu , and En-Hsu Yen

Surrogate models are a well established approach to reduce the number of expensive function evaluations in continuous optimization. In the context of genetic programming, surrogate modeling still poses a challenge, due to the complex…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2018-07-04 Martin Zaefferer , Jörg Stork , Oliver Flasch , Thomas Bartz-Beielstein

Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs), which augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external controls (ECs), are increasingly receiving attention as a way to address limited power, slow accrual, and ethical concerns in clinical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-02 Jiajun Liu , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-18 Jianan Pan , Marlena Bannick , Fei Gao

Surrogate models provide compact relations between user-defined input parameters and output quantities of interest, enabling the efficient evaluation of complex parametric systems in many-query settings. Such capabilities are essential in a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-16 Matteo Giacomini , Pedro Díez

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Wenxin Zhang , Aaron Hudson , Maya Petersen , Mark van der Laan

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Ting-Chih Hung , Yu-Chang Chen

Determining the sample size of an experiment can be challenging, even more so when incorporating external information via a prior distribution. Such information is increasingly used to reduce the size of the control group in randomized…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-10 Beat Neuenschwander , Sebastian Weber , Heinz Schmidli , Anthony O'Hagan

With the increasing availability of electronic health records (EHR) linked with biobank data for translational research, a critical step in realizing its potential is to accurately classify phenotypes for patients. Existing approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Molei Liu , Xinyi Wang , Chuan Hong

Surrogate endpoints are often used in place of expensive, delayed, or rare true endpoints in clinical trials. However, regulatory authorities require thorough evaluation to accept these surrogate endpoints as reliable substitutes. One…

We introduce in this paper an extension of the meta-analytic (MA) framework for evaluating surrogate endpoints. While the MA framework is regarded as the gold standard for surrogate endpoint evaluation, it is limited in its ability to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Florian Stijven , Peter B. Gilbert

Testing network effects in weighted directed networks is a foundational problem in econometrics, sociology, and psychology. Yet, the prevalent edge dependency poses a significant methodological challenge. Most existing methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Wenqin Du , Yuan Zhang , Wen Zhou

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-23 Lu Cheng , Ruocheng Guo , Huan Liu

Statistical inference of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) across predefined subgroups is challenging when units interact because treatment effects may vary by pre-treatment variables, post-treatment exposure variables (that measure…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-02 Julius Owusu

Many studies include a goal of determining whether there is treatment effect heterogeneity across different subpopulations. In this paper, we propose a U-statistic-based non-parametric test of the null hypothesis that the treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-08 Maozhu Dai , Hal S. Stern

Surrogate models are widely used to approximate complex systems across science and engineering to reduce computational costs. Despite their widespread adoption, the field lacks standardisation across key stages of the modelling pipeline,…

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