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The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Srijith Rajamohan , Ahmed Salhin , Josh Frazier , Rohit Kumar , Yu-Cheng Tsai , Todd Cook

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

This paper presents a method to analyze the inference patterns used by Large Language Models (LLMs) for judgment in a case study on legal LLMs, so as to identify potential incorrect representations of the LLM, according to human domain…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Lu Chen , Yuxuan Huang , Yixing Li , Dongrui Liu , Qihan Ren , Shuai Zhao , Kun Kuang , Zilong Zheng , Quanshi Zhang

Human users increasingly communicate with large language models (LLMs), but LLMs suffer from frequent overconfidence in their output, even when its accuracy is questionable, which undermines their trustworthiness and perceived legitimacy.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Dennis Ulmer , Alexandra Lorson , Ivan Titov , Christian Hardmeier

Mathematical reasoning is essential for problem-solving in education, science, and industry, serving as a crucial benchmark for evaluating artificial intelligence systems. As Large Language Models (LLMs) improve their reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Husnain Amjad , Raja Khurram Shahzad , Aamir Shahzad , Mehwish Fatima

Understanding the uncertainty in large language model (LLM) explanations is important for evaluating their faithfulness and reasoning consistency, and thus provides insights into the reliability of LLM's output regarding a question. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Jiaxin Dai , Lu Cheng , Yaqing Wang , Hua Wei

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed for simulating human behaviors across diverse domains. However, our position is that current LLM-based human simulations remain insufficiently reliable, as evidenced by significant…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Qian Wang , Jiaying Wu , Zichen Jiang , Zhenheng Tang , Bingqiao Luo , Nuo Chen , Wei Chen , Bingsheng He

The extraordinary success of recent Large Language Models (LLMs) on a diverse array of tasks has led to an explosion of scientific and philosophical theorizing aimed at explaining how they do what they do. Unfortunately, disagreement over…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Cameron Yetman

Recently, computer scientists have developed large language models (LLMs) by training prediction models with large-scale language corpora and human reinforcements. The LLMs have become one promising way to implement artificial intelligence…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Hyemin Han

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Margarida M. Campos , António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

In safety-critical applications, language models should be able to characterize their uncertainty with meaningful probabilities. Many uncertainty quantification approaches require supervised data; however, finding suitable unseen…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Sophia Hager , Simon Zeng , Nicholas Andrews

This paper investigates the reliability of explanations generated by large language models (LLMs) when prompted to explain their previous output. We evaluate two kinds of such self-explanations - extractive and counterfactual - using three…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Korbinian Randl , John Pavlopoulos , Aron Henriksson , Tony Lindgren

Recent reports claim that Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved the ability to derive new science and exhibit human-level general intelligence. We argue that such claims are not rigorous scientific claims, as they do not satisfy…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Elchanan Mossel

The prevalence of unwarranted beliefs, spanning pseudoscience, logical fallacies, and conspiracy theories, presents substantial societal hurdles and the risk of disseminating misinformation. Utilizing established psychometric assessments,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Sowmya S Sundaram , Balaji Alwar

Deductive reasoning plays a pivotal role in the formulation of sound and cohesive arguments. It allows individuals to draw conclusions that logically follow, given the truth value of the information provided. Recent progress in the domain…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Philipp Mondorf , Barbara Plank

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used in decision-making, but their reliability, especially in critical tasks like healthcare, is not well-established. Therefore, understanding how LLMs reason and make decisions is crucial for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Ze Yu Zhang , Arun Verma , Finale Doshi-Velez , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Large language models (LLMs) process and predict sequences containing text to answer questions, and address tasks including document summarization, providing recommendations, writing software and solving quantitative problems. We provide a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Ricardo Baptista , Andrew Stuart , Son Tran

There is considerable confusion about the role of Large Language Models (LLMs) in planning and reasoning tasks. On one side are over-optimistic claims that LLMs can indeed do these tasks with just the right prompting or self-verification…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Subbarao Kambhampati , Karthik Valmeekam , Lin Guan , Mudit Verma , Kaya Stechly , Siddhant Bhambri , Lucas Saldyt , Anil Murthy

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Liaoyaqi Wang , Zhengping Jiang , Anqi Liu , Benjamin Van Durme