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The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-26 Saman Banafti , Tae-Hwy Lee

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference, especially in…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-30 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Haruo Kakehi , Shota Yasui

Unmeasured confounding is a key threat to reliable causal inference based on observational studies. Motivated from two powerful natural experiment devices, the instrumental variables and difference-in-differences, we propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Ting Ye , Ashkan Ertefaie , James Flory , Sean Hennessy , Dylan S. Small

Mendelian randomization (MR) has been a popular method in genetic epidemiology to estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome using genetic variants as instrumental variables (IV), with two-sample summary-data MR being the most…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-08 Sheng Wang , Hyunseung Kang

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to study the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IVs require an instrument, a variable that is (A1) associated with the exposure, (A2) has no…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-30 Hyunseung Kang , Zijian Guo , Zhonghua Liu , Dylan Small

In this study, we investigate estimation and inference on a low-dimensional causal parameter in the presence of high-dimensional controls in an instrumental variable quantile regression. Our proposed econometric procedure builds on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-23 Jau-er Chen , Chien-Hsun Huang , Jia-Jyun Tien

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-24 Luther Yap

Linear instrumental variable regressions are widely used to estimate causal effects. Many instruments arise from the use of ``technical'' instruments and more recently from the empirical strategy of ``judge design''. This paper surveys and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-26 Anna Mikusheva , Liyang Sun

Recent work on dynamic interventions has greatly expanded the range of causal questions researchers can study while weakening identifying assumptions and yielding effects that are more practically relevant. However, most work in dynamic…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-10 Jacqueline A Mauro , Edward H Kennedy , Daniel Nagin

Unlike other techniques of causality inference, the use of valid instrumental variables can deal with unobserved sources of both variable errors, variable omissions, and sampling bias, and still arrive at consistent estimates of average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Øyvind Hoveid

Instruments can be used to identify causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding, under the famous relevance and exogeneity (unconfoundedness and exclusion) assumptions. As exogeneity is difficult to justify and to some degree…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-29 Christian Tien

Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…

Conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) has been widely used for sensitivity estimation with discontinuous integrands as a standard simulation technique. A major limitation of using CMC in this context is that finding conditioning variables to ensure…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-22 Guiyun Feng , Guangwu Liu

The relevance condition of Integrated Conditional Moment (ICM) estimators is significantly weaker than the conventional IV's in at least two respects: (1) consistent estimation without excluded instruments is possible, provided endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-14 Emmanuel Selorm Tsyawo

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Vahid Balazadeh , Hamidreza Kamkari , Medha Barath , Ricardo Silva , Rahul G. Krishnan

The classical tests in the instrumental variable model can behave arbitrarily if the data is contaminated. For instance, one outlying observation can be enough to change the outcome of a test. We develop a framework to construct testing…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Jens Klooster , Mikhail Zhelonkin

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Maresa Schröder , Konstantin Hess , Niki Kilbertus , Stefan Feuerriegel

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods often struggle with weak or invalid instruments and rely heavily on external data. We introduce a Synthetic Instrumental Variable (SIV) approach that constructs valid instruments using only…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Ratbek Dzhumashev , Ainura Tursunalieva
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