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Bayesian optimisation (BO) is widely used to optimise stochastic black box functions. While most BO approaches focus on optimising conditional expectations, many applications require risk-averse strategies and alternative criteria…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-11 Victor Picheny , Henry Moss , Léonard Torossian , Nicolas Durrande

We propose novel algorithms combining accelerated gradient flows with linearized projection-free treatments of non-convex constraints and BDF pseudo-temporal discretization for quadratic energy minimization. A general framework is developed…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-13 Guozhi Dong , Zikang Gong , Ziqing Xie , Shuo Yang

The ability to design effective experiments is crucial for obtaining data that can substantially reduce the uncertainty in the predictions made using computational models. An optimal experimental design (OED) refers to the choice of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Troy Butler , John Jakeman , Michael Pilosov , Scott Walsh , Timothy Wildey

A crucial task in system identification problems is the selection of the most appropriate model class, and is classically addressed resorting to cross-validation or using asymptotic arguments. As recently suggested in the literature, this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-09 Silvia Bonettini , Alessandro Chiuso , Marco Prato

Continuous latent time series models are prevalent in Bayesian modeling; examples include the Kalman filter, dynamic collaborative filtering, or dynamic topic models. These models often benefit from structured, non mean field variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-05 Robert Bamler , Stephan Mandt

Black-Box Optimization (BBO) methods can find optimal policies for systems that interact with complex environments with no analytical representation. As such, they are of interest in many Artificial Intelligence (AI) domains. Yet classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Mor Sinay , Elad Sarafian , Yoram Louzoun , Noa Agmon , Sarit Kraus

Bayesian optimal experimental design provides a principled framework for selecting experimental settings that maximize obtained information. In this work, we focus on estimating the expected information gain in the setting where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Chuntao Chen , Tapio Helin , Nuutti Hyvönen , Yuya Suzuki

We present a unified, finite-element-native variational inference framework for very high-dimensional Bayesian spatial field reconstruction in physics-based problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) that are nonlinear in…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jonas Nitzler , Maximilian Bergbauer , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Wolfgang A. Wall

Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Yayi Zou , Xiaoqi Lu

Envelope models provide a sufficient dimension reduction framework for multivariate regression analysis. Bayesian inference for these models has been developed primarily using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Specifically, Gibbs…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Seunghyeon Kim , Kwangmin Lee , Yeonhee Park

This paper proposes new methodology for sequential state and parameter estimation within the ensemble Kalman filter. The method is fully Bayesian and propagates the joint posterior density of states and parameters over time. In order to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-14 Jonathan R. Stroud , Matthias Katzfuss , Christopher K. Wikle

Design optimisation offers the potential to develop lightweight aircraft structures with reduced environmental impact. Due to the high number of design variables and constraints, these challenges are typically addressed using gradient-based…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Hauke F. Maathuis , Roeland De Breuker , Saullo G. P. Castro

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek

Generating simulated training data needed for constructing sufficiently accurate surrogate models to be used for efficient optimization or parameter identification can incur a huge computational effort in the offline phase. We consider a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Phillip Semler , Martin Weiser

We develop a computational framework for D-optimal experimental design for PDE-based Bayesian linear inverse problems with infinite-dimensional parameters. We follow a formulation of the experimental design problem that remains valid in the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-17 Alen Alexanderian , Arvind K. Saibaba

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has shown great promise for the global optimization of functions that are expensive to evaluate, but despite many successes, standard approaches can struggle in high dimensions. To improve the performance of BO,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Sebastian Ament , Carla Gomes

This work proposes a statistically enhanced framework to address the instability and limited predictive capability of conventional Galerkin-Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (Galerkin-POD) models. The method reformulates the correction of the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-15 Bijie Yang , Chengyuan Liu , Lu Tian , Yuping Qian , Mingyang Yang

This paper tackles optimal sensor placement for Bayesian linear inverse problems, a popular version of the more general Optimal Experimental Design (OED) problem, using the D-optimality criterion. This is done by establishing connections…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Srinivas Eswar , Vishwas Rao , Arvind K. Saibaba

Sampling of sharp posteriors in high dimensions is a challenging problem, especially when gradients of the likelihood are unavailable. In low to moderate dimensions, affine-invariant methods, a class of ensemble-based gradient-free methods,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-23 Matthew M. Dunlop , Georg Stadler
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