Related papers: The heterogeneous causal effects of the EU's Cohes…

Does euro adoption affect long-run economic growth? Existing evidence is mixed, reflecting limited treated countries, long horizons that challenge inference, and heterogeneity across member states. We estimate causal dynamic and…

We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the…

When treatments are non-randomly assigned, continuous, and yield heterogeneous effects at the same intensity, causal identification becomes particularly challenging. In such contexts, existing approaches often fail to provide…

The causal inference literature has increasingly recognized that explicitly targeting treatment effect heterogeneity can lead to improved scientific understanding and policy recommendations. Towards the same ends, studying the causal…

This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw interpretable inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show,…

Federated causal inference enables multi-site treatment effect estimation without sharing individual-level data, offering a privacy-preserving solution for real-world evidence generation. However, data heterogeneity across sites, manifested…

We investigate the effectiveness of low-carbon expenditures from the European Structural and Investment Funds in reducing greenhouse gas emissions across EU regions. Using trend and cycle decomposition of per capita emissions and emissions…

This paper introduces a causal machine learning approach to investigate the impact of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA). We propose a matrix completion algorithm on French customs data to obtain multidimensional…

Since their inception in 1984, the European Framework Programmes (FPs) have funded collaborative R&D to promote excellence, cohesion, and competitiveness in a growing European Union. However, their integrative impact and the evolution of…

Causal machine learning methods can be used to search for treatment effect heterogeneity in high-dimensional datasets even where we lack a strong enough theoretical framework to select variables or make parametric assumptions about data.…

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is an active area of research. Most of the existing methods, however, focus on estimating the conditional average treatment effects of a single, binary treatment given a set of pre-treatment…

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

We use a FAVAR model with proxy variables and sign restrictions to investigate the role of the euro area's common output and inflation cycles in the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Our findings indicate that common cycles explain…

In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered:…

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

The paper proposes a causal supervised machine learning algorithm to uncover treatment effect heterogeneity in sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs. We develop a criterion for building an honest ``regression discontinuity…

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Tailoring treatment assignment to specific individuals can improve the health outcomes, but a single study may offer inadequate information for this purpose. The ability to leverage information from an auxiliary data source deemed to be…

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…