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We consider the use of decision trees for decision-making problems under the predict-then-optimize framework. That is, we would like to first use a decision tree to predict unknown input parameters of an optimization problem, and then make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-19 Adam N. Elmachtoub , Jason Cheuk Nam Liang , Ryan McNellis

Financial markets are an intriguing place that offer investors the potential to gain large profits if timed correctly. Unfortunately, the dynamic, non-linear nature of financial markets makes it extremely hard to predict future price…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Daniel Boyle , Jugal Kalita

This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-25 Daksh Dave , Gauransh Sawhney , Vikhyat Chauhan

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical…

Decision Trees are prominent prediction models for interpretable Machine Learning. They have been thoroughly researched, mostly in the batch setting with a fixed labelled dataset, leading to popular algorithms such as C4.5, ID3 and CART.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Ayman Chaouki , Jesse Read , Albert Bifet

Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors effect to the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment and economic…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-01 Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma , Trang-Thi Ho , Wei-Chun Kao , Yu-Yen Ou , Kai-Lung Hua

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-05 Sidra Mehtab , Jaydip Sen , Subhasis Dasgupta

Buy low, sell high is one of the basic rules of thumb used in investment, although it is not considered to be a beneficial strategy. In this paper, we show how the appropriate permutation-based representation (i.e., the epistemic form) of a…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Yair Neuman , Yochai Cohen

We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a population for personalized decision-making. We propose a general methodology, Market Segmentation Trees (MSTs), for learning market segmentations explicitly driven by…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-16 Ali Aouad , Adam N. Elmachtoub , Kris J. Ferreira , Ryan McNellis

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-14 Md Sabbirul Haque , Md Shahedul Amin , Jonayet Miah , Duc Minh Cao , Ashiqul Haque Ahmed

This paper introduces StockGPT, an autoregressive ``number'' model trained and tested on 70 million daily U.S.\ stock returns over nearly 100 years. Treating each return series as a sequence of tokens, StockGPT automatically learns the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-24 Dat Mai

Sentiment-based stock prediction systems aim to explore sentiment or event signals from online corpora and attempt to relate the signals to stock price variations. Both the feature-based and neural-networks-based approaches have delivered…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-08-19 Yue Zhou , Kerstin Voigt

The stock market is a fundamental component of financial systems, reflecting economic health, providing investment opportunities, and influencing global dynamics. Accurate stock market predictions can lead to significant gains and promote…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-23 Gonzalo Lopez Gil , Paul Duhamel-Sebline , Andrew McCarren

In this paper we introduce a multi-agent deep-learning method which trades in the Futures markets based on the US S&P 500 index. The method (referred to as Model A) is an innovation founded on existing well-established machine-learning…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-22 CJ Finnegan , James F. McCann , Salissou Moutari

The stock market has been established since the 13th century, but in the current epoch of time, it is substantially more practicable to anticipate the stock market than it was at any other point in time due to the tools and data that are…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-27 Ryan Chipwanya

Our research presents a new approach for forecasting the synchronization of stock prices using machine learning and non-linear time-series analysis. To capture the complex non-linear relationships between stock prices, we utilize recurrence…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-12 Sanjay Sathish , Charu C Sharma

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-30 Zheng Cao , Raymond Guo , Wenyu Du , Jiayi Gao , Kirill V. Golubnichiy

In general, traders test their trading strategies by applying them on the historical market data (backtesting), and then apply to the future trades the strategy that achieved the maximum profit on such past data. In this paper, we propose a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-24 Ivan Letteri , Giuseppe Della Penna , Giovanni De Gasperis , Abeer Dyoub

In this work, we propose an approach to generalize denoising diffusion probabilistic models for stock market predictions and portfolio management. Present works have demonstrated the efficacy of modeling interstock relations for market…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Divyanshu Daiya , Monika Yadav , Harshit Singh Rao

AI and data driven solutions have been applied to different fields and achieved outperforming and promising results. In this research work we apply k-Nearest Neighbours, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Random Forest classifiers for detecting…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-14 Mohsen Asgari , Hossein Khasteh