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Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-18 Katiana Kontolati , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Ketson R. M. dos Santos , Dimitrios G. Giovanis , Michael D. Shields

The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 David Gonzalez , Alba Muixi , Beatriz Moya , Elias Cueto

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Time-series with volatility clustering pose a unique challenge to uncertainty quantification (UQ) for returns forecasts. Methods for UQ such as Deep Evidential regression offer a simple way of quantifying return forecast uncertainty without…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-20 Steven Y. K. Wong , Jennifer S. K. Chan , Lamiae Azizi

Deep neural networks lack interpretability and tend to be overconfident, which poses a serious problem in safety-critical applications like autonomous driving, medical imaging, or machine vision tasks with high demands on reliability.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Steven Landgraf , Kira Wursthorn , Markus Hillemann , Markus Ulrich

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Sai Munikoti , Deepesh Agarwal , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

This paper presents a probabilistic framework to obtain both reliable and fast uncertainty estimates for predictions with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our main contribution is a practical and principled combination of DNNs with sparse…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Jongseok Lee , Jianxiang Feng , Matthias Humt , Marcus G. Müller , Rudolph Triebel

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian…

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Scott Koermer , Natalie Klein

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-11 John Bradshaw , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

With increasing computational demand, Neural-Network (NN) based models are being developed as pre-trained surrogates for different thermohydraulics phenomena. An area where this approach has shown promise is in developing higher-fidelity…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-12-13 Cody Grogan , Som Dutta , Mauricio Tano , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Izabela Gutowska

Hardware-friendly network quantization (e.g., binary/uniform quantization) can efficiently accelerate the inference and meanwhile reduce memory consumption of the deep neural networks, which is crucial for model deployment on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Ruihao Gong , Xianglong Liu , Shenghu Jiang , Tianxiang Li , Peng Hu , Jiazhen Lin , Fengwei Yu , Junjie Yan

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Neural network (NN) interatomic potentials provide fast prediction of potential energy surfaces, closely matching the accuracy of the electronic structure methods used to produce the training data. However, NN predictions are only reliable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Daniel Schwalbe-Koda , Aik Rui Tan , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

Bringing deep neural networks (DNNs) into safety critical applications such as automated driving, medical imaging and finance, requires a thorough treatment of the model's uncertainties. Training deep neural networks is already resource…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Julian Burghoff , Robin Chan , Hanno Gottschalk , Annika Muetze , Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are gaining popularity as a method for solving differential equations. While being more feasible in some contexts than the classical numerical techniques, PINNs still lack credibility. A remedy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical models is essential for accurately predicting system behavior under variability. This study provides guidance on method selection for reliable UQ across varied functional behaviors in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-17 Alina Chertock , Arsen S. Iskhakov , Anna Iskhakova , Alexander Kurganov

We propose a numerical method for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Tong Qin , Zhen Chen , John Jakeman , Dongbin Xiu
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