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We establish sample-path large deviation principles for the centered cumulative functional of marked Poisson cluster processes in the Skorokhod space equipped with the M1 topology, under joint regular variation assumptions on the marks and…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Fabien Baeriswyl , Olivier Wintenberger

We consider a supercritical general branching population where the lifetimes of individuals are i.i.d. with arbitrary distribution and each individual gives birth to new individuals at Poisson times independently from each others. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-21 Benoît Henry

Motivated by applications to the study of depth functions for tree-indexed random variables generated by point processes, we describe functional limit theorems for the intensity measure of point processes. Specifically, we establish uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Giacomo Francisci , Anand N. Vidyashankar

In this paper we consider heavy tailed Markov renewal processes and we prove that, suitably renormalised, they converge in law towards the $\ga$-stable regenerative set. We then apply these results to the strip wetting model which is a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Julien Sohier

We prove a functional limit theorem for a pair of nearly unstable Hawkes processes coupled through a triangular cross-excitation mechanism, when the two kernels have distinct heavy-tail exponents. This heterogeneous regime produces two…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-07 Sohaib El Karmi

In this paper, a framework on a discrete observation of (marked) point processes under the high-frequency observation is developed. Based on this framework, we first clarify the relation between random coefficient integer-valued…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-11 Daisuke Kurisu

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Duncan A Clark , Conor J. Kresin , Charlotte M. Jones-Todd

The class of nonlinear Markov processes is characterized by the dependence of the current state of the process on its current distribution in addition to the dependence on the previous state. Due to this feature, these processes are…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-27 Aleksandr Shchegolev

Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-18 Lingjiong Zhu

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of a fully-coupled slow-fast McKean-Vlasov stochastic system. Using the non-linear Poisson equation on Wasserstein space, we first establish the strong convergence in the averaging principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-14 Yun Li , Longjie Xie

This paper is devoted to establishing the full scaling limit theorems for multivariate Hawkes processes. Under some mild conditions on the exciting kernels, we develop a new way to prove that after a suitable time-spatial scaling, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-20 Wei Xu

We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-28 Simon Clinet , Yoann Potiron

Let $(W_n(\theta))_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ be the Biggins martingale associated with a supercritical branching random walk and denote by $W_\infty(\theta)$ its limit. Assuming essentially that the martingale $(W_n(2\theta))_{n\in\mathbb N_0}$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-14 Alexander Iksanov , Zakhar Kabluchko

We consider spatially extended systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling large systems of neurons placed in Rd and study the associated mean field limits. As the total number of neurons tends to infinity, we prove that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Julien Chevallier , A Duarte , E Löcherbach , G Ost

This paper extends the analysis of Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) to the case of marked point processes. We consider multiple marked point processes with intensities defined by three multiplicative components, namely a common baseline…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-04 Ioane Muni Toke , Nakahiro Yoshida

We construct marked Gibbs point processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$ under quite general assumptions. Firstly, we allow for interaction functionals that may be unbounded and whose range is not assumed to be uniformly bounded. Indeed, our typical…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-15 Sylvie Roelly , Alexander Zass

Hawkes Processes have undergone increasing popularity as default tools for modeling self- and mutually exciting interactions of discrete events in continuous-time event streams. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) unconstrained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Rafael Lima

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

We prove a central limit theorem for a class of additive processes that arise naturally in the theory of finite horizon Markov decision problems. The main theorem generalizes a classic result of Dobrushin (1956) for temporally…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Alessandro Arlotto , J. Michael Steele

The article describes the limiting distribution of the extremes of observations that arrive in clusters. We start by studying the tail behaviour of an individual cluster and then we apply the developed theory to determine the limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Bojan Basrak , Nikolina Milinčević , Petra Žugec