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Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

We study the evolution of a particle system whose genealogy is given by a supercritical continuous time Galton--Watson tree. The particles move independently according to a Markov process and when a branching event occurs, the offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-20 Vincent Bansaye , Jean-François Delmas , Laurence Marsalle , Viet Chi Tran

Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Raiha Browning , Judith Rousseau , Kerrie Mengersen

Fleming-Viot type particle systems represent a classical way to approximate the distribution of a Markov process with killing, given that it is still alive at a final deterministic time. In this context, each particle evolves independently…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-21 Bernard Delyon , Frédéric Cérou , Arnaud Guyader , Mathias Rousset

This paper considers population processes in which general, not necessarily Markovian, multivariate Hawkes processes dictate the stochastic arrivals. We establish results to determine the corresponding time-dependent joint probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Raviar Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

We consider multi-class systems of interacting nonlinear Hawkes processes modeling several large families of neurons and study their mean field limits. As the total number of neurons goes to infinity we prove that the evolution within each…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-04 Susanne Ditlevsen , Eva Löcherbach

We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Ingemar Kaj , Mine Caglar

Using an averaged generating function for coloured hard-dimers, some random variables of interest are studied. The main result lies in the fact that all their probability distributions obey a central limit theorem.

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-22 Maria Simonetta Bernabei , Horst Thaler

The objective of this study is to investigate the limiting behavior of a subgraph counting process. The subgraph counting process we consider counts the number of subgraphs having a specific shape that exist outside an expanding ball as the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Takashi Owada

Hawkes Processes are a type of point process for modeling self-excitation, i.e., when the occurrence of an event makes future events more likely to occur. The corresponding self-triggering function of this type of process may be inferred…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-01 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

We introduce a broad class of self-similar processes $\{Z(t),t\ge 0\}$ called generalized Hermite process. They have stationary increments, are defined on a Wiener chaos with Hurst index $H\in (1/2,1)$, and include Hermite processes as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-15 Shuyang Bai , Murad S. Taqqu

We observe the actions of a $K$ sub-sample of $N$ individuals up to time $t$ for some large $K\le N$. We model the relationships of individuals by i.i.d. Bernoulli($p$)-random variables, where $p\in (0,1]$ is an unknown parameter. The rate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-20 Chenguang Liu

The origin(s) of the ubiquity of probability distribution functions (PDF) with power law tails is still a matter of fascination and investigation in many scientific fields from linguistic, social, economic, computer sciences to essentially…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-01 Kiyoshi Kanazawa , Didier Sornette

We characterize the convergence in distribution to a standard normal law for a sequence of multiple stochastic integrals of a fixed order with variance converging to 1. Some applications are given, in particular to study the limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David Nualart , Giovanni Peccati

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-13 Thibault Jaisson , Mathieu Rosenbaum

We study the asymptotic nature of geometric structures formed from a point cloud of observations of (generally heavy tailed) distributions in a Euclidean space of dimension greater than one. A typical example is given by the Betti numbers…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Takashi Owada , Robert J. Adler

Over the last 30 years, extensive work has been devoted to developing central limit theory for partial sums of subordinated long memory linear time series. A much less studied problem, motivated by questions that are ubiquitous in extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Ioan Scheffel , Marco Oesting , Gilles Stupfler

We generalize multivariate Hawkes processes mainly by including a dependence with respect to the age of the process, i.e. the delay since the last point. Within this class, we investigate the limit behaviour, when n goes to infinity, of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-16 Julien Chevallier

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Non-linear Hawkes processes with memory kernels given by the sum of Erlang kernels are considered. It is shown that their stability properties can be studied in terms of an associated class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Aline Duarte , Eva Löcherbach , Guilherme Ost
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