Related papers: Dynamical errors in machine learning forecasts

Deep learning-based multivariate and multistep-ahead traffic forecasting models are typically trained with the mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE) as the loss function in a sequence-to-sequence setting, simply assuming…

We re-examine the traditional Mean-Squared Error (MSE) forecasting paradigm by formally integrating an accuracy-timeliness trade-off: accuracy is defined by MSE (or target correlation) and timeliness by advancement (or phase excess). While…

Models based on neural networks and machine learning are seeing a rise in popularity in space physics. In particular, the forecasting of geomagnetic indices with neural network models is becoming a popular field of study. These models are…

In model-based reinforcement learning, most algorithms rely on simulating trajectories from one-step models of the dynamics learned on data. A critical challenge of this approach is the compounding of one-step prediction errors as the…

Environmental model performances need to be assessed using some statistical parameters, such as mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The advantages and disadvantages of these parameters are still in controversial.…

Non-stationary time series forecasting is challenged by evolving distribution shifts that static models struggle to capture. While Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures offer a promising paradigm for decoupling complex drift patterns,…

Average calibration of the (variance-based) prediction uncertainties of machine learning regression tasks can be tested in two ways: one is to estimate the calibration error (CE) as the difference between the mean absolute error (MSE) and…

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses.…

In this paper, we show that, in vector-to-vector regression utilizing deep neural networks (DNNs), a generalized loss of mean absolute error (MAE) between the predicted and expected feature vectors is upper bounded by the sum of an…

When deploying machine learning estimators in science and engineering (SAE) domains, it is critical to avoid failed estimations that can have disastrous consequences, e.g., in aero engine design. This work focuses on detecting and…

Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…

In this paper, we exploit the properties of mean absolute error (MAE) as a loss function for the deep neural network (DNN) based vector-to-vector regression. The goal of this work is two-fold: (i) presenting performance bounds of MAE, and…

Wide-area data and algorithms in large power systems are creating new opportunities for implementation of measurement-based dynamic load modeling techniques. These techniques improve the accuracy of dynamic load models, which are an…

Time-series forecasting models often encounter abrupt changes in a given period of time which generally occur due to unexpected or unknown events. Despite their scarce occurrences in the training set, abrupt changes incur loss that…

As regression is a widely studied problem, many methods have been proposed to solve it, each of them often requiring setting different hyper-parameters. Therefore, selecting the proper method for a given application may be very difficult…

Despite the simplicity and intuitive interpretation of Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimators, their effectiveness in certain scenarios is questionable. Indeed, minimizing squared errors on average does not provide any form of…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Machine learning (ML) is a tool to exploit remote sensing data for the monitoring and implementation of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this paper, we report on a meta-analysis to evaluate the performance of ML…

Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…

Data-driven weather forecast based on machine learning (ML) has experienced rapid development and demonstrated superior performance in the global medium-range forecast compared to traditional physics-based dynamical models. However, most of…