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Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates

Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent Coull

Recent studies have shown that ensemble approaches could not only improve accuracy and but also estimate model uncertainty in deep learning. However, it requires a large number of parameters according to the increase of ensemble models for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-25 Hong Joo Lee , Seong Tae Kim , Hakmin Lee , Nassir Navab , Yong Man Ro

Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-10 Illia Oleksiienko , Alexandros Iosifidis

Deep ensembles can be considered as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as a non-Bayesian technique, arguments supporting its Bayesian footing have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Lara Hoffmann , Clemens Elster

Ensemble learning is a mainstay in modern data science practice. Conventional ensemble algorithms assign to base models a set of deterministic, constant model weights that (1) do not fully account for individual models' varying accuracy…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-02 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , John Paisley , Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou , Brent A. Coull

Deep Ensemble (DE) is an effective alternative to Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. The uncertainty of DE is usually conveyed by the functional inconsistency among the ensemble members, say, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Zhijie Deng , Feng Zhou , Jianfei Chen , Guoqiang Wu , Jun Zhu

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal

In general, recommendation can be viewed as a matching problem, i.e., match proper items for proper users. However, due to the huge semantic gap between users and items, it's almost impossible to directly match users and items in their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-16 Zhi-Hong Deng , Ling Huang , Chang-Dong Wang , Jian-Huang Lai , Philip S. Yu

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Annotating the right data for training deep neural networks is an important challenge. Active learning using uncertainty estimates from Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) could provide an effective solution to this. Despite being theoretically…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-02-22 Kashyap Chitta , Jose M. Alvarez , Adam Lesnikowski

Speech classification has attracted increasing attention due to its wide applications, particularly in classifying physical and mental states. However, these tasks are challenging due to the high variability in speech signals. Ensemble…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-25 Bagus Tris Atmaja , Felix Burkhardt

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic…

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Predicting user positive response (e.g., purchases and clicks) probability is a critical task in Web applications. To identify predictive features from raw data, the state-of-the-art extreme deep factorization machine model (xDeepFM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Ling Chen , Hongyu Shi

Among various recommender techniques, collaborative filtering (CF) is the most successful one. And a key problem in CF is how to represent users and items. Previous works usually represent a user (an item) as a vector of latent factors…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-02-08 Gongshan He , Dongxing Zhao , Lixin Ding

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency issues, since they require parameter storage…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Hippolyt Ritter , Martin Kukla , Cheng Zhang , Yingzhen Li

Collaborative Filtering (CF) based recommendation methods have been widely studied, which can be generally categorized into two types, i.e., representation learning-based CF methods and matching function learning-based CF methods.…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Zi-Yuan Hu , Jin Huang , Zhi-Hong Deng , Chang-Dong Wang , Ling Huang , Jian-Huang Lai , Philip S. Yu

Feature selection represents a measure to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional datasets and gain insights into the systematic variation in the data. This aspect is of specific importance in domains that rely on model interpretability,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Anna Jenul , Stefan Schrunner , Jürgen Pilz , Oliver Tomic

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely
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