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We wish to estimate conditional density using Gaussian Mixture Regression model with logistic weights and means depending on the covariate. We aim at selecting the number of components of this model as well as the other parameters by a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-10 Lucie Montuelle , Erwan Le Pennec , Serge Cohen

In this article, we propose a novel logistic quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (LQMLE) for general parametric time series models. Compared to the classical Gaussian QMLE and existing robust estimations, it enjoys many distinctive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Zihan Wang , Xinghao Qiao , Dong Li , Howell Tong

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Hilaf Hasson , Danielle C. Maddix , Yuyang Wang , Gaurav Gupta , Youngsuk Park

This article is dedicated to the estimation of the regression function when the explanatory variable is a weakly dependent process whose correlation coefficient exhibits exponential decay and has a known bounded density function. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Karine Bertin , Lisandro Fermin , Miguel Padrino

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein statistics of the sampling distribution, such as the fraction of generations in a given class, deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Henry D. Smith , Nathaniel L. Diamant , Brian L. Trippe

We consider the problem of estimating a rank-one perturbation of a Wigner matrix in a setting of low signal-to-noise ratio. This serves as a simple model for principal component analysis in high dimensions. The mutual information per…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-09-25 Ahmed El Alaoui , Florent Krzakala

Generalised linear models for multi-class classification problems are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern machine learning tasks. In this manuscript, we characterise the learning of a mixture of $K$ Gaussians with generic means…

The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is frequently used in data science. For discrete distributions on large state spaces, approximations of probability vectors may result in a few small negative entries, rendering the KL divergence…

In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-04 Benjamin Kurt Miller , Marco Federici , Christoph Weniger , Patrick Forré

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become the standard paradigm for LLM mathematical reasoning, where Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) serves as the mainstream algorithm. We point out two understudied…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Mingxiong Lin , Zhangquan Gong , Maowen Tang , Qian Li , Chuangchuang Wang , Jian Ma , Sutian Huang , Kai Tang , Haonan Lu

In this paper we prove the optimality of an aggregation procedure. We prove lower bounds for aggregation of model selection type of $M$ density estimators for the Kullback-Leiber divergence (KL), the Hellinger's distance and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Guillaume Lecué

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-18 Rui Zhuang , Johannes Lederer

The method of generalized estimating equations (GEE) is popular in the biostatistics literature for analyzing longitudinal binary and count data. It assumes a generalized linear model (GLM) for the outcome variable, and a working…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-03 Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

Consider the standard Gaussian linear regression model $Y=X\theta+\epsilon$, where $Y\in R^n$ is a response vector and $ X\in R^{n*p}$ is a design matrix. Numerous work have been devoted to building efficient estimators of $\theta$ when $p$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-26 Nicolas Verzelen

We study fast algorithms for statistical regression problems under the strong contamination model, where the goal is to approximately optimize a generalized linear model (GLM) given adversarially corrupted samples. Prior works in this line…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Arun Jambulapati , Jerry Li , Tselil Schramm , Kevin Tian

Generalized linear models are flexible tools for the analysis of diverse datasets, but the classical formulation requires that the parametric component is correctly specified and the data contain no atypical observations. To address these…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-21 Ioannis Kalogridis , Gerda Claeskens , Stefan Van Aelst

High-dimensional datasets are frequently subject to contamination by outliers and heavy-tailed noise, which can severely bias standard regularized estimators like the Lasso. While Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) has recently been introduced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Xiaoning Kang , Lulu Kang

We develop in this paper a framework of empirical gain maximization (EGM) to address the robust regression problem where heavy-tailed noise or outliers may present in the response variable. The idea of EGM is to approximate the density…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-13 Yunlong Feng , Qiang Wu

In this paper we consider regression problems subject to arbitrary noise in the operator or design matrix. This characterization appropriately models many physical phenomena with uncertainty in the regressors. Although the problem has been…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-08 Richard J Clancy , Stephen Becker

The validity of estimation and smoothing parameter selection for the wide class of generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) relies on the correct specification of a likelihood function. Deviations from such…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 William H. Aeberhard , Eva Cantoni , Giampiero Marra , Rosalba Radice