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We argue the case for Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) as a strong algorithmic framework for the distributed, generic and incremental probabilistic estimation we need in Spatial AI as we aim at high performance smart robots and devices…

In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties.…

Uncertainty quantification for image data is dominated by complex deep learning methods, yet the field lacks an interpretable, mathematically grounded baseline. We propose Bayesian scattering to fill this gap, serving as a first-step…

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

Belief Propagation (BP) is a message-passing algorithm for approximate inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs), finding many applications such as computer vision, error-correcting codes, and protein-folding. While general, the…

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Message passing algorithms have proved surprisingly successful in solving hard constraint satisfaction problems on sparse random graphs. In such applications, variables are fixed sequentially to satisfy the constraints. Message passing is…

Efficient inference in high-dimensional models is a central challenge in machine learning. We introduce the Gaussian Ensemble Belief Propagation (GEnBP) algorithm, which combines the strengths of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and…

Understanding which concepts models can and cannot represent has been fundamental to many tasks: from effective and responsible use of models to detecting out of distribution data. We introduce Gaussian process probes (GPP), a unified and…

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to…

The group testing problem asks for efficient pooling schemes and algorithms that allow to screen moderately large numbers of samples for rare infections. The goal is to accurately identify the infected samples while conducting the least…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Understanding the process by which a contagion disseminates throughout a network is of great importance in many real world applications. The required sophistication of the inference approach depends on the type of information we want to…

Motivated by the problem of computer-aided detection (CAD) of pulmonary nodules, we introduce methods to propagate and fuse uncertainty information in a multi-stage Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture. The question we…

We present a novel distributed Gauss-Newton method for the non-linear state estimation (SE) model based on a probabilistic inference method called belief propagation (BP). The main novelty of our work comes from applying BP sequentially…

In this paper we examine the problem of inference in Bayesian Networks with discrete random variables that have very large or even unbounded domains. For example, in a domain where we are trying to identify a person, we may have variables…

Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…

Belief propagation (BP) is a message-passing method for solving probabilistic graphical models. It is very successful in treating disordered models (such as spin glasses) on random graphs. On the other hand, finite-dimensional lattice…