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Modern deep neural networks for classification usually jointly learn a backbone for representation and a linear classifier to output the logit of each class. A recent study has shown a phenomenon called neural collapse that the within-class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-13 Yibo Yang , Shixiang Chen , Xiangtai Li , Liang Xie , Zhouchen Lin , Dacheng Tao

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the over confidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been over looked…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Yuheng Jia , Jianhong Cheng , Hui Liu , Junhui Hou

Deep Neural Networks (DNN) represent the state of the art in many tasks. However, due to their overparameterization, their generalization capabilities are in doubt and still a field under study. Consequently, DNN can overfit and assign…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Juan Maroñas , Daniel Ramos , Roberto Paredes

Deep neural networks may perform poorly when training datasets are heavily class-imbalanced. Recently, two-stage methods decouple representation learning and classifier learning to improve performance. But there is still the vital issue of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-02 Zhisheng Zhong , Jiequan Cui , Shu Liu , Jiaya Jia

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are poorly calibrated when trained in conventional ways. To improve confidence calibration of DNNs, we propose a novel training method, distance-based learning from errors (DBLE). DBLE bases its confidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Chen Xing , Sercan Arik , Zizhao Zhang , Tomas Pfister

Recent studies on Neural Collapse (NC) reveal that, under class-balanced conditions, the class feature means and classifier weights spontaneously align into a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). In long-tailed regimes, however, severe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Jinping Wang , Zhiqiang Gao , Zhiwu Xie

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Jeremy Nixon , Mike Dusenberry , Ghassen Jerfel , Timothy Nguyen , Jeremiah Liu , Linchuan Zhang , Dustin Tran

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often result uncalibrated after training, usually tending towards overconfidence. Devising effective calibration methods with low impact in terms of computational complexity is thus of central interest. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Hector J. Hortua , Luigi Malago , Riccardo Volpi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often suffer from the overconfidence issue, where incorrect predictions are made with high confidence scores, hindering the applications in critical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Yijun Liu , Jiequan Cui , Zhuotao Tian , Senqiao Yang , Qingdong He , Xiaoling Wang , Jingyong Su

Calibrating the confidence of supervised learning models is important for a variety of contexts where the certainty over predictions should be reliable. However, it has been reported that deep neural network models are often too poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-23 Changjian Shui , Azadeh Sadat Mozafari , Jonathan Marek , Ihsen Hedhli , Christian Gagné

Optimal decision making requires that classifiers produce uncertainty estimates consistent with their empirical accuracy. However, deep neural networks are often under- or over-confident in their predictions. Consequently, methods have been…

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of real-world scenarios, where perfect information is rarely available. Humans naturally develop complex internal models to navigate incomplete data and effectively respond to unforeseen or partially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Wenhao Liang , Chang Dong , Liangwei Zheng , Wei Zhang , Weitong Chen

Understanding the confidence with which a machine learning model classifies an input datum is an important, and perhaps under-investigated, concept. In this paper, we propose a new calibration metric, the Entropic Calibration Difference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Daniel James Sumler , Lee Devlin , Simon Maskell , Richard O. Lane

For speech classification tasks, deep learning models often achieve high accuracy but exhibit shortcomings in calibration, manifesting as classifiers exhibiting overconfidence. The significance of calibration lies in its critical role in…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-27 Yaqian Hao , Chenguang Hu , Yingying Gao , Shilei Zhang , Junlan Feng

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Seonguk Seo , Paul Hongsuck Seo , Bohyung Han

Over the past several years, various federated learning (FL) methodologies have been developed to improve model accuracy, a primary performance metric in machine learning. However, to utilize FL in practical decision-making scenarios,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Yun-Wei Chu , Dong-Jun Han , Seyyedali Hosseinalipour , Christopher Brinton

The recently discovered Neural collapse (NC) phenomenon states that the last-layer weights of Deep Neural Networks (DNN), converge to the so-called Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF) simplex, at the terminal phase of their training. This ETF…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-01 Hafiz Tiomoko Ali , Umberto Michieli , Ji Joong Moon , Daehyun Kim , Mete Ozay

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Jiayi Huang , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

Model calibration, which is concerned with how frequently the model predicts correctly, not only plays a vital part in statistical model design, but also has substantial practical applications, such as optimal decision-making in the real…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Erdong Guo , David Draper , Maria De Iorio