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Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
Across the stable density stratification of the abyssal ocean, deep dense water is slowly propelled upward by sustained, though irregular, turbulent mixing. The resulting mean upwelling determines large-scale oceanic circulation properties…
Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 \pm 0.15 W/m2…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited…
Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…