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We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

Computation · Statistics 2015-07-10 Pierre Del Moral , Lawrence M. Murray

Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) is a Bayesian method which can infer the states and parameters of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The standard random-walk proposal in SMC$^2$ faces challenges, particularly with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-25 Conor Rosato , Joshua Murphy , Alessandro Varsi , Paul Horridge , Simon Maskell

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

There is a lack of methodological results to design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for statistical models with discrete-valued high-dimensional parameters. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a simple framework…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-21 Giacomo Zanella

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Asif J. Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-11 Nikolas Kantas , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Jan Maciejowski , Nicolas Chopin

Variable selection is a key issue when analyzing high-dimensional data. The explosion of data with large sample sizes and dimensionality brings new challenges to this problem in both inference accuracy and computational complexity. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Xu Chen , Shaan Qamar , Surya T. Tokdar

Recent advances in stochastic gradient techniques have made it possible to estimate posterior distributions from large datasets via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, when the target posterior is multimodal, mixing performance is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-12 Yizhe Zhang , Changyou Chen , Zhe Gan , Ricardo Henao , Lawrence Carin

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular method in sampling. While there are quite a few works of studying this method on various aspects, an interesting question is how to choose its integration time to achieve acceleration. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Jun-Kun Wang , Andre Wibisono

Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Yutian Chen , Vikash Mansinghka , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

Tuning the durations of the Hamiltonian flow in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (also called Hybrid Monte Carlo) (HMC) involves a tradeoff between computational cost and sampling quality, which is typically challenging to resolve in a satisfactory…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Jesus Maria Sanz-Serna

Hierarchical Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes are considered useful for describing complex nonlinear statistical dependencies among variables in real-world data. However, effective Monte Carlo algorithms for inference with these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Takashi Hayakawa , Satoshi Asai

Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Linnea M Wolniewicz , Peter Sadowski , Claudio Corti

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) by looking for correlated deviations in pulse arrival times. Current Bayesian searches use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which struggle to sample the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-08 Gabriel E. Freedman , Aaron D. Johnson , Rutger van Haasteren , Sarah J. Vigeland

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-08-19 Yi-Ming Hu , Martin Hendry , Ik Siong Heng

Traditional MCMC algorithms are computationally intensive and do not scale well to large data. In particular, the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm requires passing over the entire dataset to evaluate the likelihood ratio in each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-29 Tung-Yu Wu , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Wing H. Wong

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-04 Andrew Golightly , Theodore Kypraios

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-19 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas