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This two-part paper presents a new approach to predictive analysis for social processes. In Part I, we begin by identifying a class of social processes which are simultaneously important in applications and difficult to predict using…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-11-17 Richard Colbaugh , Kristin Glass

Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-09 Max Schweiger , Ayush Saurabh , Steve Pressé

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) involves training policy models (PMs) and reward models (RMs) to align language models with human preferences. Instead of focusing solely on PMs and RMs independently, we propose to examine…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-14 Taiming Lu , Lingfeng Shen , Xinyu Yang , Weiting Tan , Beidi Chen , Huaxiu Yao

The Hierarchical Reasoning Model (HRM) has impressive reasoning abilities given its small size, but has only been applied to supervised, static, fully-observable problems. One of HRM's strengths is its ability to adapt its computational…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Long H Dang , David Rawlinson

This paper introduces mathematical formalism for Spatial (SP) of Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) with a spacial consideration for its hardware implementation. Performance of HTM network and its ability to learn and adjust to a problem at…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-07-05 M. Pietron , M. Wielgosz , K. Wiatr

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive action sequence prediction capabilities but often struggle with dynamic, long-horizon tasks such as real-time strategic games. In a game such as StarCraftII (SC2), agents…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Daechul Ahn , San Kim , Jonghyun Choi

Recent years have witnessed a fast-growing interest in computing explanations for Machine Learning (ML) models predictions. For non-interpretable ML models, the most commonly used approaches for computing explanations are heuristic in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-05 Alexey Ignatiev , Nina Narodytska , Joao Marques-Silva

In multi-hop question answering (MHQA) tasks, Chain of Thought (CoT) improves the quality of generation by guiding large language models (LLMs) through multi-step reasoning, and Knowledge Graphs (KGs) reduce hallucinations via semantic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Xinyi Wang , Yiping Song , Zhiliang Tian , Bo Liu , Tingjin Luo , Minlie Huang

Robots can learn to imitate humans by inferring what the human is optimizing for. One common framework for this is Bayesian reward learning, where the robot treats the human's demonstrations and corrections as observations of their…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Joshua Hoegerman , Dylan P. Losey

Collaborative robots, or cobots, are increasingly integrated into various industrial and service settings to work efficiently and safely alongside humans. However, for effective human-robot collaboration, robots must reason based on human…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Muhammad Adel Yusuf , Ali Nasir , Zeeshan Hameed Khan

The challenging problem of conducting fully Bayesian inference for the reaction rate constants governing stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) is considered. Given the challenges underlying this problem, the Markov jump process representation is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-10 Andrew Golightly , Emma Bradley , Tom Lowe , Colin S. Gillespie

Adapting quickly to dynamic, uncertain environments-often called "open worlds"-remains a major challenge in robotics. Traditional Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) approaches struggle to cope with unforeseen changes, are data-inefficient when…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Pierrick Lorang , Hong Lu , Matthias Scheutz

Human mobility forecasting is important for applications such as transportation planning, urban management, and personalized recommendations. However, existing methods often fail to generalize to unseen users or locations and struggle to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wenyao Li , Ran Zhang , Pengyang Wang , Yuanchun Zhou , Pengfei Wang

Humans make daily routine decisions based on their internal states in intricate interaction scenarios. This paper presents a probabilistically reconstructive learning approach to identify the internal states of multi-vehicle sequential…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-08-17 Huanjie Wang , Wenshuo Wang , Shihua Yuan , Xueyuan Li

LLM role-playing, i.e., using LLMs to simulate specific personas, has emerged as a key capability in various applications, such as companionship, content creation and digital games. While current models effectively capture character tones…

In this paper we introduce a new hierarchical model for the simultaneous detection of brain activation and estimation of the shape of the hemodynamic response in multi-subject fMRI studies. The proposed approach circumvents a major…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-13 David Degras , Martin A. Lindquist

Historical Simulation (HS) and its extensions form a popular class of methods for estimating Value-at-Risk for portfolios of financial assets based on historical data. In this note, we seek to unify several ideas and models from throughout…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Björn Löfdahl Grelsson

This article introduces a novel heuristic for Task and Motion Planning (TAMP) named Interpretable Responsibility Sharing (IRS), which enhances planning efficiency in domestic robots by leveraging human-constructed environments and inherent…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Arda Sarp Yenicesu , Sepehr Nourmohammadi , Berk Cicek , Ozgur S. Oguz

The ability to express scientific concepts in mathematical terms and integrate scientific and mathematical reasoning about a phenomenon is a foundational cognitive process involved in scientific thinking. This process called blended…

Physics Education · Physics 2023-05-24 Leonora Kaldaras , Carl Wieman

Across many domains of science, stochastic models are an essential tool to understand the mechanisms underlying empirically observed data. Models can be of different levels of detail and accuracy, with models of high-fidelity (i.e., high…