Related papers: Stochastic Claims Reserving Using State Space Mode…

State-space models (SSMs) are a popular tool for modeling animal abundances. Inference difficulties for simple linear SSMs are well known, particularly in relation to simultaneous estimation of process and observation variances. Several…

Claims reserving is one of the most important actuarial tasks in non-life insurance modeling. There are several popular methods to perform claims reserving such as the chain-ladder (CL), the Bornhuetter--Ferguson (BF) or the generalized…

Improved state space models, such as Recurrent State Space Models (RSSMs), are a key factor behind recent advances in model-based reinforcement learning (RL). Yet, despite their empirical success, many of the underlying design choices are…

The chain-ladder (CL) method is the most widely used claims reserving technique in non-life insurance. This manuscript introduces a novel approach to computing the CL reserves based on a fundamental restructuring of the data utilization for…

Detailed information about individual claims are completely ignored when insurance claims data are aggregated and structured in development triangles for loss reserving. In the hope of extracting predictive power from the individual claims…

Time series analysis by state-space models is widely used in forecasting and extracting unobservable components like level, slope, and seasonality, along with explanatory variables. However, their reliance on traditional Kalman filtering…

Kalman filtering and smoothing are the foundational mechanisms for efficient inference in Gauss-Markov models. However, their time and memory complexities scale prohibitively with the size of the state space. This is particularly…

State estimation incorporates the feedback in optimization based advanced process control systems and is very important for the performance of model predictive control. We describe the extended Kalman filter, the unscented Kalman filter,…

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…

Claim reserving primarily relies on macro-level models, with the Chain-Ladder method being the most widely adopted. These methods were heuristically developed without minimal statistical foundations, relying on oversimplified data…

State-space models (SSMs) have recently attention as an efficient alternative to computationally expensive attention-based models for sequence modeling. They rely on linear recurrences to integrate information over time, enabling fast…

This paper presents a multinomial multi-state micro-level reserving model, denoted mCube. We propose a unified framework for modelling the time and the payment process for IBNR and RBNS claims and for modeling IBNR claim counts. We use…

In general insurance companies, a correct estimation of liabilities plays a key role due to its impact on management and investing decisions. Since the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the strengthening of regulation, the focus is not only…

State space models (SSMs) have emerged as a powerful framework for modelling long-range dependencies in sequence data. Unlike traditional recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), SSMs offer a structured and…

Reservoir computing (RC), is a class of computational methods such as Echo State Networks (ESN) and Liquid State Machines (LSM) describe a generic method to perform pattern recognition and temporal analysis with any non-linear system. This…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

State-space models (SSMs) are powerful probabilistic tools for modeling time-varying systems with latent dynamics. Inference in SSMs involves the estimation of latent states and parameters. In this work, we focus on parameter inference,…

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

Filtering and smoothing algorithms for linear discrete-time state-space models with skewed and heavy-tailed measurement noise are presented. The algorithms use a variational Bayes approximation of the posterior distribution of models that…

State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…