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Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

We present an efficient and practical (polynomial time) algorithm for online prediction in unknown and partially observed linear dynamical systems (LDS) under stochastic noise. When the system parameters are known, the optimal linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Paria Rashidinejad , Jiantao Jiao , Stuart Russell

The problem of piecewise affine (PWA) regression and planning is of foundational importance to the study of online learning, control, and robotics, where it provides a theoretically and empirically tractable setting to study systems…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Adam Block , Max Simchowitz , Russ Tedrake

Training deep learning neural networks often requires massive amounts of computational ressources. We propose to sequentially monitor network predictions to trigger retraining only if the predictions are no longer valid. This can reduce…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-30 Ansgar Steland

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Model calibration, which is concerned with how frequently the model predicts correctly, not only plays a vital part in statistical model design, but also has substantial practical applications, such as optimal decision-making in the real…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Erdong Guo , David Draper , Maria De Iorio

We consider the online distributed non-stochastic experts problem, where the distributed system consists of one coordinator node that is connected to $k$ sites, and the sites are required to communicate with each other via the coordinator.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-15 Varun Kanade , Zhenming Liu , Bozidar Radunovic

Camera-based perception systems play a central role in modern autonomous vehicles. These camera based perception algorithms require an accurate calibration to map the real world distances to image pixels. In practice, calibration is a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Ciarán Hogan , Ganesh Sistu , Ciarán Eising

Rapid development in numerical modelling of materials and the complexity of new models increases quickly together with their computational demands. Despite the growing performance of modern computers and clusters, calibration of such models…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-03-08 Tomáš Mareš , Eliška Janouchová , Anna Kučerová

Extrinsic calibration is essential for multi-sensor fusion, existing methods rely on structured targets or fully-excited data, limiting real-world applicability. Online calibration further suffers from weak excitation, leading to unreliable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Baorun Li , Chengrui Zhu , Siyi Du , Bingran Chen , Jie Ren , Wenfei Wang , Yong Liu , Jiajun Lv

In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-16 Richard D. Wilkinson , Christopher W. Lanyon

We extend and combine several tools of the literature to design fast, adaptive, anytime and scale-free online learning algorithms. Scale-free regret bounds must scale linearly with the maximum loss, both toward large losses and toward very…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Laurent Orseau , Marcus Hutter

This paper considers using predictions in the context of the online Joint Replenishment Problem with Deadlines (JRP-D). Prior work includes asymptotically optimal competitive ratios of $O(1)$ for the clairvoyant setting and $O(\sqrt{n})$ of…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Michael Dinitz , Jeremy T. Fineman , Seeun William Umboh

Firms typically cannot observe key consumer actions: whether customers buy from a competitor, choose not to buy, or even fully consider the firm's offer. This missing outside-option information makes market-size and preference estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Jiangkai Xiong , Kalyan Talluri , Hanzhao Wang

Parameter-free algorithms are online learning algorithms that do not require setting learning rates. They achieve optimal regret with respect to the distance between the initial point and any competitor. Yet, parameter-free algorithms do…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-22 Keyi Chen , Ashok Cutkosky , Francesco Orabona

This paper investigates the challenges of optimal online policy learning under missing data. State-of-the-art algorithms implicitly assume that rewards are always observable. I show that when rewards are missing at random, the Upper…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-29 Filippo Palomba

Accurate conditional prediction in the regression setting plays an important role in many real-world problems. Typically, a point prediction often falls short since no attempt is made to quantify the prediction accuracy. Classically, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Kejin Wu , Dimitris N. Politis

Consider an infinite sequence of independent, uniformly chosen points from $[0,1]^d$. After looking at each point in the sequence, an overseer is allowed to either keep it or reject it, and this choice may depend on the locations of all…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Raaz Dwivedi , Ohad N. Feldheim , Ori Gurel-Gurevich , Aaditya Ramdas

We study the computational complexity of approximating general constrained Markov decision processes. Our primary contribution is the design of a polynomial time $(0,\epsilon)$-additive bicriteria approximation algorithm for finding optimal…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Jeremy McMahan