Related papers: Measure Theory of Conditionally Independent Random…
Let $(X_n:n\ge 1)$ be a sequence of random observations. Let $\sigma_n(\cdot)=P\bigl(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\bigr)$ be the $n$-th predictive distribution and $\sigma_0(\cdot)=P(X_1\in\cdot)$ the marginal distribution of $X_1$. In…
Parameter identification problems are formulated in a probabilistic language, where the randomness reflects the uncertainty about the knowledge of the true values. This setting allows conceptually easily to incorporate new information, e.g.…
We want to select the best systems out of a given set of systems (or rank them) with respect to their expected performance. The systems allow random observations only and we assume that the joint observation of the systems has a…
Bayesian optimal experimental design has immense potential to inform the collection of data so as to subsequently enhance our understanding of a variety of processes. However, a major impediment is the difficulty in evaluating optimal…
Estimation of a deterministic quantity observed in non-Gaussian additive noise is explored via order statistics approach. More specifically, we study the estimation problem when measurement noises either have positive supports or follow a…
Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…
Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…
The linear functional strategy for the regularization of inverse problems is considered. For selecting the regularization parameter therein, we propose the heuristic quasi-optimality principle and some modifications including the smoothness…
Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…
This article describes a robust algorithm to estimate a conditional probability density f(t|x) as a non-parametric smooth regression function. It is based on a neural network and the Bayesian interpretation of the network output as a…
We consider Bayesian optimization of objective functions of the form $\rho[ F(x, W) ]$, where $F$ is a black-box expensive-to-evaluate function and $\rho$ denotes either the VaR or CVaR risk measure, computed with respect to the randomness…
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error.…
Refining one's hypotheses in the light of data is a common scientific practice; however, the dependency on the data introduces selection bias and can lead to specious statistical analysis. An approach for addressing this is via conditioning…
We consider a sequential decision making task, where the goal is to optimize an unknown function without evaluating parameters that violate an a~priori unknown (safety) constraint. A common approach is to place a Gaussian process prior on…
The model-X conditional randomization test is a generic framework for conditional independence testing, unlocking new possibilities to discover features that are conditionally associated with a response of interest while controlling type-I…
This is a writeup, with some elaboration, of the talks by the two authors (a physicist and a statistician) at the first PHYSTAT Informal review on January 24, 2024. We discuss Bayesian and frequentist approaches to dealing with nuisance…
Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective means for performing a number of machine learning tasks such as annotation and labelling of images and other data sets. In most early settings of crowdsourcing, the task involved classification,…
There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…
We present a new algorithm for probabilistic planning with no observability. Our algorithm, called Probabilistic-FF, extends the heuristic forward-search machinery of Conformant-FF to problems with probabilistic uncertainty about both the…
Heuristics in theorem provers are often parameterised. Modern theorem provers such as Vampire utilise a wide array of heuristics to control the search space explosion, thereby requiring optimisation of a large set of parameters. An…