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Related papers: Causal attribution with confidence

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We seek to understand the probability an individual benefits from treatment (PIBT), an inestimable quantity that must be bounded in practice. Given the innate uncertainty in the population-level bounds on PIBT, we seek to better understand…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Gabriel Ruiz , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Estimating the causal effects of an intervention in the presence of confounding is a frequently occurring problem in applications such as medicine. The task is challenging since there may be multiple confounding factors, some of which may…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-28 Sonali Parbhoo , Mario Wieser , Volker Roth

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

Order statistics theory is applied in this paper to probabilistic robust control theory to compute the minimum sample size needed to come up with a reliable estimate of an uncertain quantity under continuity assumption of the related…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-13 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to reduce the estimation variance for one or more population variables of interest that are estimated using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective…

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Brian Knaeble , Mehdi Hakim-Hashemi , Mark A. Abramson

Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-01 Sai Li , Zijian Guo

Propensity scores are often used for stratification of treatment and control groups of subjects in observational data to remove confounding bias when estimating of causal effect of the treatment on an outcome in so-called potential outcome…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-24 Priyantha Wijayatunga

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

Probabilities of causation play a crucial role in modern decision-making. Pearl defined three binary probabilities of causation, the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Identifying the effects of causes and causes of effects is vital in virtually every scientific field. Often, however, the needed probabilities may not be fully identifiable from the data sources available. This paper shows how partial…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Ang Li , Scott Mueller , Judea Pearl

Nonparametric series regression often involves specification search over the tuning parameter, i.e., evaluating estimates and confidence intervals with a different number of series terms. This paper develops pointwise and uniform inferences…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-26 Byunghoon Kang

Intercurrent events, common in clinical trials and observational studies, affect the existence or interpretation of final outcomes. Principal stratification addresses this challenge by defining local average treatment effect estimands…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Jiaqi Tong , Brennan Kahan , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li

Causal inference methods (instrumental variables, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, etc.) are primary tools used across many social science milieus. One area where their application has lagged however, is in the study of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Samuele Centorrino , Christopher F. Parmeter

Estimating prevalence, the fraction of a population with a certain medical condition, is fundamental to epidemiology. Traditional methods rely on classification of test samples taken at random from a population. Such approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-25 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are common in many different scientific fields including epidemiology, ecology, and economics. As with all observational studies, such designs often suffer from unmeasured confounding, which generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs , Arvid Sjölander

Applied researchers in biomedicine and related fields are often interested in estimating the causal effect of a treatment or intervention. Although randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for establishing causal effects,…