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This article introduces estimators of trend and seasonality for time series of point processes. We assume the point processes follow a temporal or spatial doubly-stochastic Poisson model with log-Gaussian intensity functions. The proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-22 Daniel Gervini , Simon A. Kopischke

Temporal correlations in the time series observed in various systems have been characterized by the autocorrelation function. Such correlations can be explained by heavy-tailed interevent time distributions as well as by correlations…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-06-17 Min-ho Yu , Hang-Hyun Jo

We discuss several examples of point processes (all taken from Hough, Krishnapur, Peres, Vir\'ag (2009)) for which the autocorrelation and diffraction measures can be calculated explicitly. These include certain classes of determinantal and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-07-22 Michael Baake , Holger Kösters , Robert V. Moody

Many natural phenomena exhibit a stochastic nature that one attempts at modeling by using stochastic processes of different types. In this context, often one is interested in investigating the memory properties of the natural phenomenon at…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-09 Salvatore Miccichè

This paper is concerned with the problem of how to speed up computation for Gaussian process models trained on autocorrelated data. The Gaussian process model is a powerful tool commonly used in nonlinear regression applications. Standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Ahmadreza Chokhachian , Matthias Katzfuss , Yu Ding

An increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series. A common assumption in training neural networks via maximum likelihood estimation on time series is that the errors across time steps are uncorrelated.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Fan-Keng Sun , Christopher I. Lang , Duane S. Boning

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

Describing a time series parsimoniously is the first step to study the underlying dynamics. For a time-discrete system, a generating partition provides a compact description such that a time series and a symbolic sequence are one-to-one.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-01-09 Yoshito Hirata , Thomas Stemler , Deniz Eroglu , Norbert Marwan

For stationary time series, it is common to use the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF) or PACF-based tests to explore the temporal dependence structure of such processes. To our best knowledge, such analogs for non-stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

The classical regular and partial autocorrelation functions are powerful tools for stationary time series modelling and analysis. However, it is increasingly recognized that many time series are not stationary and the use of classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Rebecca Killick , Marina I. Knight , Guy P. Nason , Idris A. Eckley

The general scheme for the treatment of relaxation processes and temporal autocorrelations of dynamical variables for many particle systems is presented in framework of the recurrence relations approach. The time autocorrelation functions…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-10 Anatolii V. Mokshin

Stochastic point processes relevant to the theory of long-range aperiodic order are considered that display diffraction spectra of mixed type, with special emphasis on explicitly computable cases together with a unified approach of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2019-07-17 Michael Baake , Matthias Birkner , Robert V. Moody

Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In recent studies such bursty…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-12-01 Márton Karsai , Kimmo Kaski , Albert-László Barabási , János Kertész

Self-exciting spatio-temporal point process models predict the rate of events as a function of space, time, and the previous history of events. These models naturally capture triggering and clustering behavior, and have been widely used in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Alex Reinhart

Time series graphical models have recently received considerable attention for characterizing (conditional) dependence structures in multivariate time series. In many applications, the multivariate series exhibit variable-partitioned…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-09 Qin Fang , Xinghao Qiao , Zihan Wang

Change point detection in time series aims to identify moments when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

We propose a new autocorrelation measure for functional time series that we term spherical autocorrelation. It is based on measuring the average angle between lagged pairs of series after having been projected onto the unit sphere. This new…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-14 Chi-Kuang Yeh , Gregory Rice , Joel A. Dubin

We derive new discrete event simulation algorithms for marked time point processes. The main idea is to couple a special structure, namely the associated local independence graph, as defined by Didelez arXiv:0710.5874, with the activity…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-05 Cyrille Mascart , Alexandre Muzy , Patricia Reynaud-bouret

Understanding patterns of demand is fundamental for fleet management of bike sharing systems. In this paper we analyze data from the Divvy system of the city of Chicago. We show that the demand of bicycles can be modeled as a multivariate…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-10 Daniel Gervini , Manoj Khanal

In this chapter we review some examples, methods, and recent results involving comparison of clustering properties of point processes. Our approach is founded on some basic observations allowing us to consider void probabilities and moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-23 Bartłomiej Błaszczyszyn , D. Yogeshwaran
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