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Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

In many real-world problems, there is a limited set of training data, but an abundance of unlabeled data. We propose a new method, Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs), that uses unlabeled data to estimate epistemic uncertainty in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-01 Melrose Roderick , Felix Berkenkamp , Fatemeh Sheikholeslami , Zico Kolter

Uncertainty quantification for image data is dominated by complex deep learning methods, yet the field lacks an interpretable, mathematically grounded baseline. We propose Bayesian scattering to fill this gap, serving as a first-step…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Bernardo Fichera , Zarko Ivkovic , Kjell Jorner , Philipp Hennig , Viacheslav Borovitskiy

As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity in conducting prediction tasks in-context, understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning becomes essential to ensuring reliability. The recent hypothesis of in-context…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-08 I. Shavindra Jayasekera , Jacob Si , Filippo Valdettaro , Wenlong Chen , A. Aldo Faisal , Yingzhen Li

Most image restoration problems are ill-conditioned or ill-posed and hence involve significant uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for reliably interpreting experimental results, particularly when reconstructed images…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Jasper M. Everink , Bernardin Tamo Amougou , Marcelo Pereyra

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Background and objective: Uncertainty quantification is a pivotal field that contributes to realizing reliable and robust systems. It becomes instrumental in fortifying safe decisions by providing complementary information, particularly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-19 Jamil Fayyad , Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Image-to-image translation plays a vital role in tackling various medical imaging tasks such as attenuation correction, motion correction, undersampled reconstruction, and denoising. Generative adversarial networks have been shown to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-05 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Yanbei Chen , Tobias Hepp , Sergios Gatidis , Zeynep Akata

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for the deployment of image restoration models in safety-critical domains, like autonomous driving and biological imaging. To date, methods for uncertainty visualization have mainly focused on per-pixel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Elias Nehme , Omer Yair , Tomer Michaeli

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

Convolutional neural network (CNN) has achieved unprecedented success in image super-resolution tasks in recent years. However, the network's performance depends on the distribution of the training sets and degrades on out-of-distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Aupendu Kar , Prabir Kumar Biswas

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

Generative models, like large language models, are becoming increasingly relevant in our daily lives, yet a theoretical framework to assess their generalization behavior and uncertainty does not exist. Particularly, the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Interpretability and uncertainty quantification in machine learning can provide justification for decisions, promote scientific discovery and lead to a better understanding of model behavior. Symbolic regression provides inherently…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-23 G. F. Bomarito , P. E. Leser , N. C. M Strauss , K. M. Garbrecht , J. D. Hochhalter