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This paper develops a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach for joint state and parameter estimation that can deal efficiently with abruptly changing parameters which is a common case when tracking maneuvering targets. The approach…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-12 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead , Lyudmila Mihaylova

This paper introduces a novel Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the evolution of the low-earth orbit environment, enhancing the MIT Orbital Capacity Analysis Tool (MOCAT). In recent decades, numerous space environment models have been…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-15 Daniel Jang , Davide Gusmini , Peng Mun Siew , Andrea D'Ambrosio , Simone Servadio , Pablo Machuca , Richard Linares

Ambitious satellite constellation projects by commercial entities and the ease of access to space in recent times have led to a dramatic proliferation of low-Earth space traffic. It jeopardizes space safety and long-term sustainability,…

Sequential Monte Carlo methods have been a major breakthrough in the field of numerical signal processing for stochastic dynamical state-space systems with partial and noisy observations. However, these methods still present certain…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-14 Samuel Nyobe , Fabien Campillo , Serge Moto , Vivien Rossi

A commonly encountered problem is the tracking of a physical object, like a maneuvering ship, aircraft, land vehicle, spacecraft or animate creature carrying a wireless device. The sensor data is often limited and inaccurate observations of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-02 Kevin Judd

Many problems in the geophysical sciences demand the ability to calibrate the parameters and predict the time evolution of complex dynamical models using sequentially-collected data. Here we introduce a general methodology for the joint…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-12 Sara Pérez-Vieites , Inés P. Mariño , Joaquín Míguez

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more…

Particle filters flexibly represent multiple posterior modes nonparametrically, via a collection of weighted samples, but have classically been applied to tracking problems with known dynamics and observation likelihoods. Such generative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Ali Younis , Erik Sudderth

This paper proposes a visual multi-object tracking method that jointly employs stochastic and deterministic mechanisms to ensure identifier consistency for unknown and time-varying target numbers under nonlinear dynamics. A stochastic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Toan Van Nguyen , Rasmus G. K. Christiansen , Dirk Kraft , Leon Bodenhagen

A major challenge facing existing sequential Monte-Carlo methods for parameter estimation in physics stems from the inability of existing approaches to robustly deal with experiments that have different mechanisms that yield the results…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-09-13 Christopher Granade , Nathan Wiebe

The increasing volume of space objects in Earth's orbit presents a significant challenge for Space Situational Awareness (SSA). And in particular, accurate orbit prediction is crucial to anticipate the position and velocity of space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Francisco Caldas , Cláudia Soares

We design a sequential Monte Carlo scheme for the dual purpose of Bayesian inference and model selection. We consider the application context of urban mobility, where several modalities of transport and different measurement devices can be…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-29 Luca Martino , Jesse Read , Victor Elvira , Francisco Louzada

We propose a hierarchy of multi-level kinetic Monte Carlo methods for sampling high-dimensional, stochastic lattice particle dynamics with complex interactions. The method is based on the efficient coupling of different spatial resolution…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-08-06 Evangelia Kalligiannaki , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is degenerate or low. More precisely, one is given access to a discrete time observation sequence which at any time $k$ depends only on the state of an…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-17 Abylay Zhumekenov , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Yuan Zhao , Josue Nassar , Ian Jordan , Mónica Bugallo , Il Memming Park

Bayesian estimation with an explicit transitional prior is required for a tracking algorithm to be embedded in most multi-target tracking frameworks. This paper describes a novel approach capable of tracking maneuvering spacecraft with an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-25 Enrico M. Zucchelli , Brandon A. Jones

We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-13 Hamza Ruzayqat , Aimad Er-Raiy , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Methods to extract information from the tracking of mobile objects/particles have broad interest in biological and physical sciences. Techniques based on simple criteria of proximity in time-consecutive snapshots are useful to identify the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-13 M. Chertkov , L. Kroc , F. Krzakala , M. Vergassola , L. Zdeborová

Particle filters (PFs) are recursive Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian tracking and prediction in state space models. This paper addresses continuous-discrete filtering problems, where the hidden state evolves as an It\^o stochastic…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-24 Utku Erdogan , Gabriel J. Lord , Joaquin Miguez

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli