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Stochastic Optimization (SO) is a classical approach for optimization under uncertainty that typically requires knowledge about the probability distribution of uncertain parameters. As the latter is often unknown, Distributionally Robust…

Multivariate time series imputation is often compromised by mismatch between the observed and true data distributions, a bias induced by the combined effects of time-series non-stationarity and systematic missingness. Standard methods that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-07 Che-Yi Liao , Zheng Dong , Gian-Gabriel Garcia , Kamran Paynabar

Asset Liability Management (ALM) represents a fundamental challenge for financial institutions, particularly pension funds, which must navigate the tension between generating competitive investment returns and ensuring the solvency of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-10 Alireza Ghahtarani , Ahmed Saif , Alireza Ghasemi

The Wasserstein distance has emerged as a key metric to quantify distances between probability distributions, with applications in various fields, including machine learning, control theory, decision theory, and biological systems.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Eduardo Figueiredo , Steven Adams , Luca Laurenti

We consider exact deterministic mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulations of distributionally robust chance-constrained programs (DR-CCP) with random right-hand sides over Wasserstein ambiguity sets. The existing MIP formulations are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-08 Nam Ho-Nguyen , Fatma Kılınç-Karzan , Simge Küçükyavuz , Dabeen Lee

We introduce a framework for quantifying propagation of uncertainty arising in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we define dynamic uncertainty sets designed explicitly for discrete stochastic processes over a finite time horizon. These…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-05 Marlon Moresco , Mélina Mailhot , Silvana M. Pesenti

We consider optimal transport based distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems with locally strongly convex transport cost functions and affine decision rules. Under conventional convexity assumptions on the underlying loss…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-27 Jose Blanchet , Karthyek Murthy , Fan Zhang

Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Charita Dellaporta , Patrick O'Hara , Theodoros Damoulas

In this work, we study how to ensure probabilistic safety for nonlinear systems under distributional ambiguity. Our approach builds on a backup-based safety filtering framework that switches between a high-performance nominal policy and a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Daniel M. Cherenson , Haejoon Lee , Taekyung Kim , Dimitra Panagou

We investigate the use of distributionally robust optimization (DRO) as a tractable tool to recover the asymptotic statistical guarantees provided by the Central Limit Theorem, for maintaining the feasibility of an expected value constraint…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-05-31 Henry Lam

We introduce a robust variant of the Kelly portfolio optimization model, called the Wasserstein-Kelly portfolio optimization. Our model, taking a Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation, addresses the fundamental…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-28 Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Stephan Eckstein , Michael Kupper , Mathias Pohl

We propose a distributionally robust approach to learning hyperparameters for first-order methods in convex optimization. Given a dataset of problem instances, we minimize a Wasserstein distributionally robust version of the performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Vinit Ranjan , Jisun Park , Bartolomeo Stellato

Wasserstein distributionally robust control (WDRC) is an effective method for addressing inaccurate distribution information about disturbances in stochastic systems. It provides various salient features, such as an out-of-sample…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-08 Astghik Hakobyan , Insoon Yang

Standard rare-event simulation techniques require exact distributional specifications, which limits their effectiveness in the presence of distributional uncertainty. To address this, we develop a novel framework for estimating rare-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Dohyun Ahn , Huiyi Chen , Lewen Zheng

Precise control under uncertainty requires a good understanding and characterization of the noise affecting the system. This paper studies the problem of steering state distributions of dynamical systems subject to partially known…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-20 Joshua Pilipovsky , Panagiotis Tsiotras

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-14 Carole Bernard , Silvana M. Pesenti , Steven Vanduffel

Safe corridor-based Trajectory Optimization (TO) presents an appealing approach for collision-free path planning of autonomous robots, offering global optimality through its convex formulation. The safe corridor is constructed based on the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Shaohang Xu , Haolin Ruan , Wentao Zhang , Yian Wang , Lijun Zhu , Chin Pang Ho

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-02 Patrick Kuiper , Ali Hasan , Wenhao Yang , Yuting Ng , Hoda Bidkhori , Jose Blanchet , Vahid Tarokh

In this article we present a general framework for non-concave robust stochastic control problems under model uncertainty in a discrete time finite horizon setting. Our framework allows to consider a variety of different path-dependent…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester