Related papers: Generalized Parameter Lifting: Finer Abstractions …

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

A rescaled Markov chain converges uniformly in probability to the solution of an ordinary differential equation, under carefully specified assumptions. The presentation is much simpler than those in the outside literature. The result may be…

Probabilistic model checking aims to prove whether a Markov decision process (MDP) satisfies a temporal logic specification. The underlying methods rely on an often unrealistic assumption that the MDP is precisely known. Consequently,…

We introduce the lifted Generalized Belief Propagation (GBP) message passing algorithm, for the computation of sum-product queries in Probabilistic Relational Models (e.g. Markov logic network). The algorithm forms a compact region graph…

This work introduces a new abstraction technique for reducing the state space of large, discrete-time labelled Markov chains. The abstraction leverages the semantics of interval Markov decision processes and the existing notion of…

We introduce the problem of formally verifying properties of Markov processes where the parameters are given by the output of machine learning models. For a broad class of machine learning models, including linear models, tree-based models,…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) are often used for analyzing correlated non-Gaussian data. The likelihood function in a GLMM is available only as a high dimensional integral, and thus closed-form inference and prediction are not…

Markov population models (MPMs) are a widely used modelling formalism in the area of computational biology and related areas. The semantics of a MPM is an infinite-state continuous-time Markov chain. In this paper, we use the established…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target…

We here consider the subset simulation method which approaches a failure event using a decreasing sequence of nested intermediate failure events. The method resembles importance sampling, which actively explores a probability space by…

Basic Parallel Processes (BPPs) are a well-known subclass of Petri Nets. They are the simplest common model of concurrent programs that allows unbounded spawning of processes. In the probabilistic version of BPPs, every process generates…

A generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is unreliable for a large number of moment conditions, that is, it is comparable, or larger than the sample size. While classical GMM literature proposes several provisions to this problem,…

This paper surveys various results about Markov chains on general (non-countable) state spaces. It begins with an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which provide the motivation and context for the theory which…

Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…

This paper presents NgramMarkov, a variant of the Markov constraints. It is dedicated to text generation in constraint programming (CP). It involves a set of n-grams (i.e., sequence of n words) associated with probabilities given by a large…

The Pseudo-Marginal (PM) algorithm is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used to sample from a target distribution when its density is inaccessible, but can be estimated with a non-negative unbiased estimator. Its performance…

In the following article we provide an exposition of exact computational methods to perform parameter inference from partially observed network models. In particular, we consider the duplication attachment (DA) model which has a likelihood…

The analysis of many problems of interest associated with Markov chains, e.g. stationary distributions, moments of first passage time distributions and moments of occupation time random variables, involves the solution of a system of linear…

We use Markov categories to generalize the basic theory of Markov chains and hidden Markov models to an abstract setting. This comprises characterizations of hidden Markov models in terms of conditional independences and algorithms for…

We propose new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample probability distributions on submanifolds, which generalize previous methods by allowing the use of set-valued maps in the proposal step of the MCMC algorithms. The motivation for…