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Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Philipp Wagner , Xinyang Wu , Marco F. Huber

Online optimization has gained increasing interest due to its capability of tracking real-world streaming data. Although online optimization methods have been widely studied in the setting of frequentist statistics, few works have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Yifan Yang , Chang Liu , Zheng Zhang

Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Gianluca Finocchio , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Mathias Löwe , Per Lunnemann Hansen , Sebastian Risi

We establish a general, non-asymptotic error analysis framework for understanding the effects of incremental approximations made by practical approaches for Bayesian sequential learning (BSL) on their long-term inference performance. Our…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Liliang Wang , Alex A. Gorodetsky

In industrial machine learning pipelines, data often arrive in parts. Particularly in the case of deep neural networks, it may be too expensive to train the model from scratch each time, so one would rather use a previously learned model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Max Kochurov , Timur Garipov , Dmitry Podoprikhin , Dmitry Molchanov , Arsenii Ashukha , Dmitry Vetrov

Online decision making aims to learn the optimal decision rule by making personalized decisions and updating the decision rule recursively. It has become easier than before with the help of big data, but new challenges also come along.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Haoyu Chen , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Motivated by the predictable nature of real-life in data streams, we study online regression when the learner has access to predictions about future examples. In the extreme case, called transductive online learning, the sequence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Vinod Raman , Shenghao Xie , Samson Zhou

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

This paper introduces posterior mean matching (PMM), a new method for generative modeling that is grounded in Bayesian inference. PMM uses conjugate pairs of distributions to model complex data of various modalities like images and text,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Sebastian Salazar , Michal Kucer , Yixin Wang , Emily Casleton , David Blei

This paper presents an approximate method for performing Bayesian inference in models with conditional independence over a decentralized network of learning agents. The method first employs variational inference on each individual learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-13 Trevor Campbell , Jonathan P. How

Density deconvolution deals with the estimation of the probability density function $f$ of a random signal from $n\geq1$ data observed with independent and known additive random noise. This is a classical problem in statistics, for which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Stefano Favaro , Sandra Fortini

Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for updating knowledge as new information becomes available, often in a sequential manner by incorporating datasets in stages or reusing previous posteriors as priors. In practice, this is…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-05-22 Lipei Du

We present methods for online linear optimization that take advantage of benign (as opposed to worst-case) sequences. Specifically if the sequence encountered by the learner is described well by a known "predictable process", the algorithms…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-05-27 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

It is shown that a consistent application of Bayesian updating from a prior probability density to a posterior using evidence in the form of expectation constraints leads to exactly the same results as the application of the maximum entropy…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-05-02 Sergio Davis

Background: Catastrophic forgetting is the notorious vulnerability of neural networks to the changes in the data distribution during learning. This phenomenon has long been considered a major obstacle for using learning agents in realistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-19 Chen Zeno , Itay Golan , Elad Hoffer , Daniel Soudry

We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-13 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan , Ambuj Tewari

We introduce a method for online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes. Like previous methods, ours possesses a retrospective guarantee of coverage for arbitrary sequences. However, unlike previous methods, we can simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Rina Foygel Barber , Stephen Bates

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Samuel Kessler , Adam Cobb , Tim G. J. Rudner , Stefan Zohren , Stephen J. Roberts

We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-01 Kyoungjae Lee , Minwoo Chae , Lizhen Lin