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Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie

Despite the popularism of Bayesian neural networks in recent years, its use is somewhat limited in complex and big data situations due to the computational cost associated with full posterior evaluations. Variational Bayes (VB) provides a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-30 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Tapabrata Maiti

Methods of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly used for analysis of complex models. A major challenge for ABC is over-coming the often inherent problem of high rejection rates in the accept/reject methods based on…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-27 Fernando V. Bonassi , Mike West

Variational Bayes (VB) is rapidly becoming a popular tool for Bayesian inference in statistical modeling. However, the existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes the use of VB in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-05 Minh-Ngoc Tran , David J. Nott , Robert Kohn

Bayesian inference methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) typically require repeated computations of the likelihood function, but in some scenarios this is infeasible and alternative methods are needed. Simulation-based inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Linnea M Wolniewicz , Peter Sadowski , Claudio Corti

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-13 Richard G. Everitt , Dennis Prangle , Philip Maybank , Mark Bell

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Importance sampling (IS) is commonly used for cross validation (CV) in Bayesian models, because it only involves reweighting existing posterior draws without needing to re-estimate the model by re-running Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-12 Geonhee Han , Andrew Gelman

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Developing efficient Bayesian computation algorithms for imaging inverse problems is challenging due to the dimensionality involved and because Bayesian imaging models are often not smooth. Current state-of-the-art methods often address…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-04 Marcelo Pereyra , Luis A. Vargas-Mieles , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-17 Christopher Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-14 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is computationally intensive for complex model simulators. To exploit expensive simulations, data-resampling via bootstrapping can be employed to obtain many artificial datasets at little cost.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Umberto Picchini , Richard G. Everitt

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

In Bayesian inference, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm known for its efficiency in sampling from complex probability distributions. However, its application to models with latent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-15 Alaa Amri , Víctor Elvira , Amy L. Wilson

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell