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Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Simon Tindemans , Goran Strbac

Markov jump processes (MJPs) are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference for MJPs typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Boqian Zhang , Vinayak Rao

Sampling from log-concave distributions is a well researched problem that has many applications in statistics and machine learning. We study the distributions of the form $p^{*}\propto\exp(-f(x))$, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-13 Ruoqi Shen , Yin Tat Lee

Given a convex function $f\colon\mathbb{R}^{d}\to\mathbb{R}$, the problem of sampling from a distribution $\propto e^{-f(x)}$ is called log-concave sampling. This task has wide applications in machine learning, physics, statistics, etc. In…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-12-11 Andrew M. Childs , Tongyang Li , Jin-Peng Liu , Chunhao Wang , Ruizhe Zhang

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It is common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-30 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly , Sayan Mukherjee , David Dunson

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from complex high-dimensional continuous distributions. However, in many situations it is necessary or desirable to combine HMC with other…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-24 Guangyao Zhou

In this study, we propose quantum annealing-enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (QAEMCMC), where QA is integrated into the MCMC subroutine. QA efficiently explores low-energy configurations and overcomes local minima, enabling the generation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-13 Shunta Arai , Tadashi Kadowaki

Recent advances in machine learning have led to the development of new methods for enhancing Monte Carlo methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and importance sampling (IS). One such method is normalizing flows, which use a neural…

Computation · Statistics 2024-01-12 Charly Andral

When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and Monte Carlo estimation accuracy.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-14 Tiangang Cui , Jing Dong , Ajay Jasra , Xin T. Tong

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-20 Zhuoyuan Wang , Yorie Nakahira

In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-03 Marcelo Hartmann , Ricardo Ehlers

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are popular samplers for approximate inference, but they are generally biased. We show that many recent versions of these methods (e.g. Chen et al. (2014)) cannot be corrected using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Vincent Fortuin

We prove finite sample complexities for sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which require only local mixing times of the associated Markov kernels. Our bounds are particularly useful when the target distribution is multimodal and global…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-16 Joseph Mathews , Scott C. Schmidler

We introduce a generalised micro-macro Markov chain Monte Carlo (mM-MCMC) method with pseudo-marginal approximation to the free energy, that is able to accelerate sampling of the microscopic Gibbs distributions when there is a time-scale…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-28 Hannes Vandecasteele , Giovanni Samaey

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Ziming Liu , Zheng Zhang

We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-08 Andrea Bertazzi , Giorgos Vasdekis

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful method for drawing samples from non-standard probability distributions and is utilized across many fields and disciplines. Methods such as Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Hamiltonian…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-28 Lee Devlin , Paul Horridge , Peter L. Green , Simon Maskell

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-10 Qifan Song , Yan Sun , Mao Ye , Faming Liang
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