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This study examines whether the tariff policies delivered on promises to revitalize American manufacturing and create jobs. Using county-level business application data from 2018-2025, we analyze the relationship between tariff…
To comprehensively evaluate a public policy intervention, researchers must consider the effects of the policy not just on the implementing region, but also nearby, indirectly-affected regions. For example, an excise tax on sweetened…
This paper explores the gain maximization problem of two nations engaging in non-cooperative bilateral trade. Probabilistic model of an exchange of commodities under different price systems is considered. Volume of commodities exchanged…
The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing…
We study how tariffs affect industrial structure and welfare in an economy where sectors are complements and preferences are nonhomothetic -- two drivers of structural change. Import tariffs on a sector influence sectoral composition by…
This paper introduces a causal machine learning approach to investigate the impact of the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA). We propose a matrix completion algorithm on French customs data to obtain multidimensional…
The implementation of efficient demand response (DR) programs for household electricity consumption would benefit from data-driven methods capable of simulating the impact of different tariffs schemes. This paper proposes a novel method…
Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the…
This paper presents the way in which can be determined the exchange rates that simultaneously balance the trade balances of all countries that trade with each other within a common market. A mathematical synthesis between the theory of…
This paper assesses the global employment and trade effects of renewed tariff escalation following the reintroduction of the United States' America First strategy in 2025. Using a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework integrated with…
This paper proposes a theory of pricing premised upon the assumptions that customers dislike unfair prices---those marked up steeply over cost---and that firms take these concerns into account when setting prices. Since they do not observe…
We develop a model in which country-specific tariffs shape trade flows, prices, and welfare in a global economy with one homogeneous good. Trade flows form a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), and tariffs influence not only market outcomes but…
Trade imbalances significantly alter the welfare implications of tariffs. Using an illustrative model, we show that trade deficits enhance a country's ability to alter its terms of trade, and thereby benefit from tariffs. Greater trade…
I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…
The Ricardian model of world trade based on comparative advantage is not sufficient to justify equal trade relations.The existing model of trade relations does not explain the distribution of income among trading countries. This paper…
Policy interventions can spill over to units of a population that are not directly exposed to the policy but are geographically close to the units receiving the intervention. In recent work, investigations of spillover effects on…
The increasing application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning models poses potential risks of unfair behavior and, in light of recent regulations, has attracted the attention of the research community. Several researchers…
It is of high interest for a company to identify customers expected to bring the largest profit in the upcoming period. Knowing as much as possible about each customer is crucial for such predictions. However, their demographic data,…
The appropriate discount rate for evaluating policies is a critical consideration in economic decision-making. This paper presents a new model for calculating the derived discount rate for a society that includes different groups with…
This paper analyzes the economic impact of China's retaliatory soybean tariff on U.S. soybean farmers using advanced econometric methods and comprehensive datasets including USDA reports, trade data, and historical price movements. The…