Related papers: A Dynamic, Ordinal Gaussian Process Item Response …
We introduce Latent Gaussian Process Regression which is a latent variable extension allowing modelling of non-stationary multi-modal processes using GPs. The approach is built on extending the input space of a regression problem with a…
We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…
Intensive longitudinal studies are becoming progressively more prevalent across many social science areas, especially in psychology. New technologies like smart-phones, fitness trackers, and the Internet of Things make it much easier than…
Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…
This paper presents a machine learning approach to multidimensional item response theory (MIRT), a class of latent factor models that can be used to model and predict student performance from observed assessment data. Inspired by…
We introduce a simple dynamic model of opinion formation, in which a finite population of individuals hold vector-valued opinions. At each time step, each individual's opinion moves towards the mean opinion but is then perturbed…
Gaussian processes provide a compact representation for modeling and estimating an unknown function, that can be updated as new measurements of the function are obtained. This paper extends this powerful framework to the case where the…
Gaussian Processes (\textbf{GPs}) are flexible non-parametric models with strong probabilistic interpretation. While being a standard choice for performing inference on time series, GPs have few techniques to work in a streaming setting.…
A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…
We present D-BIRD, a Bayesian dynamic item response model for estimating student ability from sparse, longitudinal assessments. By decomposing ability into a cohort trend and individual trajectory, D-BIRD supports interpretable modeling of…
Standard GPs offer a flexible modelling tool for well-behaved processes. However, deviations from Gaussianity are expected to appear in real world datasets, with structural outliers and shocks routinely observed. In these cases GPs can fail…
We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…
In this paper, we revisit batch state estimation through the lens of Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider continuous-discrete estimation problems wherein a trajectory is viewed as a one-dimensional GP, with time as the independent…
In this paper, we introduce a new directed graphical model from Gaussian data: the Gaussian graphical interaction model (GGIM). The development of this model comes from considering stationary Gaussian processes on graphs, and leveraging the…
Inference-time scaling (ITS) in latent reasoning models typically relies on heuristic perturbations, such as dropout or fixed Gaussian noise, to generate diverse candidate trajectories. However, we show that stronger perturbations do not…
Physical systems can often be described via a continuous-time dynamical system. In practice, the true system is often unknown and has to be learned from measurement data. Since data is typically collected in discrete time, e.g. by sensors,…
Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear…
We present a novel and flexible data-driven framework for estimating the response of higher-order moments of nonlinear stochastic systems to small external perturbations. The classical Generalized Fluctuation--Dissipation Theorem (GFDT)…
Ensuring safety and adapting to the user's behavior are of paramount importance in physical human-robot interaction. Thus, incorporating elastic actuators in the robot's mechanical design has become popular, since it offers intrinsic…
The random dot product graph is a popular model for network data with extensions that accommodate dynamic (time-varying) networks. However, two significant deficiencies exist in the dynamic random dot product graph literature: (1) no…