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Accurate aircraft trajectory prediction (TP) in air traffic management systems is confounded by a number of epistemic uncertainties, dominated by uncertain meteorological conditions and operator specific procedures. Handling this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-01-21 Amy Hodgkin , Nick Pepper , Marc Thomas

Accurate trajectory prediction (TP) for climbing aircraft is hampered by the presence of epistemic uncertainties concerning aircraft operation, which can lead to significant misspecification between predicted and observed trajectories. This…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-13 Nick Pepper , Marc Thomas

Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Shane Barratt , Mykel Kochenderfer , Stephen Boyd

This paper presents a model based on an hybrid system to numerically simulate the climbing phase of an aircraft. This model is then used within a trajectory prediction tool. Finally, the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-18 Areski Hadjaz , Gaétan Marceau , Pierre Savéant , Marc Schoenauer

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Nick Pepper , Marc Thomas , George De Ath , Enrico Oliver , Richard Cannon , Richard Everson , Tim Dodwell

Multirotors flying in close proximity induce aerodynamic wake effects on each other through propeller downwash. Conventional methods have fallen short of providing adequate 3D force-based models that can be incorporated into robust control…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-27 H. Smith , A. Shankar , J. Gielis , J. Blumenkamp , A. Prorok

Realistic aircraft trajectory models are useful in the design and validation of air traffic management (ATM) systems. Models of aircraft operated under instrument flight rules (IFR) require capturing the variability inherent in how aircraft…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Soyeon Jung , Amelia Hardy , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Accurate prediction of model rocket flight performance requires estimating aerodynamic parameters that are difficult to measure directly. Traditional approaches rely on computational fluid dynamics or empirical correlations, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Rohit Pandey , Rohan Pandey

Trajectory prediction (TP) is crucial for ensuring safety and efficiency in modern air traffic management systems. It is, for example, a core component of conflict detection and resolution tools, arrival sequencing algorithms, capacity…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Nick Pepper , Marc Thomas , Zack Xuereb Conti

Accurately estimating aircraft fuel flow is essential for evaluating new procedures, designing next-generation aircraft, and monitoring the environmental impact of current aviation practices. This paper investigates the generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-25 Gabriel Jarry , Ramon Dalmau , Philippe Very , Junzi Sun

The rise in computational capability has increased reliance on simulations to inform aircraft design. However aircraft airworthiness testing for flight certification remains rooted in real-world experiments performed after manufacturing an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-28 Jayant Mukhopadhaya

Trajectory prediction (TP) plays an important role in supporting the decision-making of Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs). Traditional TP methods are deterministic and physics-based, with parameters that are calibrated using aircraft…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-27 Nick Pepper , George De Ath , Marc Thomas , Richard Everson , Tim Dodwell

Aerocapture is sensitive to trajectory errors, particularly for low-cost missions with imprecise navigation. For such missions, considering the probability of each failure mode when computing guidance commands can increase capture rate. A…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-29 Grace E. Calkins , Jay W. McMahon , Alireza Doostan , David C. Woffinden

We classified the decoupled stochastic parallel gradient descent (SPGD) optimization model into two different types: software and hardware decoupling methods. A kind of software decoupling method is then proposed and a kind of hardware…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-19 Qiang Fu , Jörg-Uwe Pott , Feng Shen , Changhui Rao , Xinyang Li

Predicting flight trajectories is a research area that holds significant merit. In this paper, we propose a data-driven learning framework, that leverages the predictive and feature extraction capabilities of the mixture models and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Jun Xiang , Jun Chen

We discuss an approach to probabilistic forecasting based on two chained machine-learning steps: a dimensional reduction step that learns a reduction map of predictor information to a low-dimensional space in a manner designed to preserve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-28 Nick Rittler , Carlo Graziani , Jiali Wang , Rao Kotamarthi

This paper develops a real-time, search-based aircraft contingency landing planner that minimizes traffic disruptions while accounting for ground risk. The airspace model captures dense air traffic departure and arrival flows, helicopter…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-10 H. Emre Tekaslan , Ella M. Atkins

Evaluating the effectiveness and benefits of driver assistance systems is crucial for improving the system performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for testing and evaluating lane departure correction systems at a low cost…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-02-21 Wenshuo Wang , Ding Zhao

Take-off and landing are the periods of a flight where aircraft are most vulnerable to a ground based rocket attack by terrorists. While aircraft approach and depart from airports on pre-defined flight paths, there is a degree of…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-31 Willem J. Eerland , Simon Box

Simulating realistic radar data has the potential to significantly accelerate the development of data-driven approaches to radar processing. However, it is fraught with difficulty due to the notoriously complex image formation process. Here…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Rob Weston , Oiwi Parker Jones , Ingmar Posner
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