Related papers: A Behaviour and Disease Model of Testing and Isola…
In many epidemiological and ecological contexts, there is a trade-off between infections and interactions. This arises because the links between individuals capable of spreading infections are also often associated with beneficial…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Models of infectious diseases have been developed since the first half of the twentieth century. Most models haven't considered the role that emotional factors of the individual may play on the population's behavioral adaptation during the…
Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…
Disease awareness in epidemiology can be modelled with adaptive contact networks, where the interplay of disease dynamics and network alteration often adds new phases to the standard models (Gross et al. 2006, Shaw et al. 2008) and, in…
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…
We introduce and discuss a kinetic framework describing the time evolution of the statistical distributions of a population divided into the compartments of susceptible, infectious, recovered, and resistant in the presence of a microbial…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…
This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model…
Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
A major contribution to the onset and development of autoimmune disease is known to come from infections. An important practical problem is identifying the precise mechanism by which the breakdown of immune tolerance as a result of immune…
We present some ideas on how to extend a kinetic type model for crowd dynamics to account for an infectious disease spreading. We focus on a medium size crowd occupying a confined environment where the disease is easily spread. The kinetic…
The global public health landscape is perpetually challenged by the looming threat of infectious diseases. Central to addressing this concern is the imperative to prevent and manage disease transmission during pandemics, particularly in…
It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…
Traditional mathematical models of epidemic disease had for decades conventionally considered static structure for contacts. Recently, an upsurge of theoretical inquiry has strived towards rendering the models more realistic by…
In the wake of epidemics, quarantine measures are typically recommended by health authorities or governments to help control the spread of the disease. Compared with mandatory quarantine, voluntary quarantine offers individuals the liberty…
This study aims to estimate the parameters of a stochastic exposed-infected epidemiological model for the transmission dynamics of notifiable infectious diseases, based on observations related to isolated cases counts only. We use the…