Related papers: Alpha-Beta HMM: Hidden Markov Model Filtering with…
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that…
The objective is to study an on-line Hidden Markov model (HMM) estimation-based Q-learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) on finite state and action sets. When the full state observation is available,…
We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…
This paper studies the synthesis of an active perception policy that maximizes the information leakage of the initial state in a stochastic system modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM). Specifically, the emission function of the HMM is…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…
We present a polyphonic MIDI score-following algorithm capable of following performances with arbitrary repeats and skips, based on a probabilistic model of musical performances. It is attractive in practical applications of score following…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are general purpose models for time-series data widely used across the sciences because of their flexibility and elegance. However fitting HMMs can often be computationally demanding and time consuming,…
We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…
We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation…
Time series of conformational dynamics in proteins are usually evaluated with hidden Markov models (HMMs). This approach works well if the number of states and their connectivity is known. However, for the multi-domain protein Hsp90, a…
As a relatively new field, network neuroscience has tended to focus on aggregate behaviours of the brain averaged over many successive experiments or over long recordings in order to construct robust brain models. These models are limited…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…
We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…
Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…
Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) represent hidden, multi\-stage cyberattacks whose long term persistence and adaptive behavior challenge conventional intrusion detection systems (IDS). Although recent advances in machine learning and…
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is…
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present…
We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate…
Hidden Markov models are widely used for modeling sequential data but typically have limited applicability in observational causal inference due to their strong conditional independence assumptions. I introduce feedback-augmented…