Related papers: Detecting the Indian Monsoon using Topological Dat…
The Indian monsoon brings around 80% of the annual rainfall over the summer months June--September to the Indian subcontinent. The timing of the monsoon onset and the associated rainfall has a large impact on agriculture, thus impacting the…
The livelihood and food security of more than a billion people depend on the Indian monsoon (IM). Yet, a universal definition of the large-scale season and progress of IM is missing. Even though IM is a planetary-scale convectively coupled…
The initiation of the Indian summer monsoon circulation during late May / early June arises through large-scale land-sea thermal contrast and setting up of negative pressure gradient between the Monsoon Trough over the Indo-Gangetic plains…
A region under rainfall is a contiguous spatial area receiving positive precipitation at a particular time. The probabilistic behavior of such a region is an issue of interest in meteorological studies. A region under rainfall can be viewed…
We propose a representation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in terms of a probabilistic model based on a Markov Random Field, consisting of discrete state variables representing low and high rainfall at grid-scale and daily rainfall…
The challenge in predicting sub-regional climate within the Indian monsoon region is exacerbated by its increasing variability in a warming world. While exploring the seasonal predictability of rainfall over the state of Tamil Nadu in…
Traditionally, during the monsoon season, more rainfall is received along the Western Ghats, the Northern Gangetic plains, the central belt, and northeast India. However, recently, there has been a shift in this canonical monsoon rainfall…
The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a critical climate phenomenon, fundamentally impacting the agriculture, economy, and water security of over a billion people. Traditional long-range forecasting, whether statistical or dynamical, has…
We present a study on the spatio-temporal pattern underlying the climate dynamics in various locations spread over India, including the Himalayan region, coastal region, central and northeastern parts of India. We try to capture the…
Using the Morlet continuous wavelet transform on data over the period 1871-1990, it is found that the global wavelet cross spectra between two solar activity indices and seven major Indian monsoon rainfall time series show significant power…
The primary objective of this paper is to analyze a set of canonical spatial patterns that approximate the daily rainfall across the Indian region, as identified in the companion paper where we developed a discrete representation of the…
The forecast of Indian monsoon droughts has been predicated on the notion of a season-long rainfall deficit linked to warm anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. Here, we show that in fact nearly half of all droughts over the past century…
Accurate monsoon rainfall prediction is vital for India's agriculture, water management, and climate risk planning, yet remains challenging due to sparse ground observations and complex regional variability. We present a multimodal deep…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food…
For two cases of empirical monsoon onset prediction it is argued that current verification practice leads to optimistically biased skill, caused by the intricacy of the model setup. For the case of the operational forecasts by the Indian…
Forecasts of monsoon rainfall for India are made at national scale. But there is spatial coherence and heterogeneity that is relevant to forecasting. This paper considers year-to-year rainfall change and annual extremes at sub-national…
The Indian monsoon, a multi-variable process causing heavy rains during June-September every year, is very heterogeneous in space and time. We study the relationship between rainfall and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR, convective cloud…
This study assesses a Continuous Data Assimilation (CDA) dynamical-downscaling algorithm for enhancing the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) system. CDA is a mathematically rigorous technique that has been recently introduced to…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…