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Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Peter Grönquist , Chengyuan Yao , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Mechanistic interpretability focuses on reverse engineering the internal mechanisms learned by neural networks. We extend our focus and propose to mechanistically forward engineer using our framework based on Concept Bottleneck Models. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Angela van Sprang , Erman Acar , Willem Zuidema

Bridging continuous perceptual signals and discrete symbolic reasoning is a fundamental challenge in AI systems that must operate under uncertainty. We present a neuro-symbolic framework that explicitly models and propagates uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Jiahao Wu , Shengwen Yu

A subjective expected utility policy making centre, managing complex, dynamic systems, needs to draw on the expertise of a variety of disparate panels of experts and integrate this information coherently. To achieve this, diverse supporting…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-21 Jim Q. Smith , Martine J. Barons , Manuele Leonelli

Large ensembles of climate projections are essential for characterizing uncertainty in future climate and extreme weather events, yet computational constraints of numerical climate models limit ensemble sizes to a small number of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Francesco Immorlano , Elijah Tavares , Felix Draxler , Padhraic Smyth , Pierre Gentine , Stephan Mandt

Understanding the future climate is crucial for informed policy decisions on climate change prevention and mitigation. Earth system models play an important role in predicting future climate, requiring accurate representation of complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Christian Reimers , David Hafezi Rachti , Guahua Liu , Alexander J. Winkler

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

We consider an empirical likelihood framework for inference for a statistical model based on an informative sampling design. Covariate information is incorporated both through the weights and the estimating equations. The estimator is based…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-03 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Mark S. Handcock

In this introductory article we present the basics of an approach to implementing computational interpreting of natural language aiming to model the meanings of words and phrases. Unlike other approaches, we attempt to define the meanings…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Michael Kapustin , Pavlo Kapustin

In human-centric settings like education or healthcare, model accuracy and model explainability are key factors for user adoption. Towards these two goals, intrinsically interpretable deep learning models have gained popularity, focusing on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Vinitra Swamy , Syrielle Montariol , Julian Blackwell , Jibril Frej , Martin Jaggi , Tanja Käser

Recent concept-based interpretable models have succeeded in providing meaningful explanations by pre-defined concept sets. However, the dependency on the pre-defined concepts restricts the application because of the limited number of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-19 Shin'ya Yamaguchi , Kosuke Nishida

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Shuangshuang He , Hongli Liang , Yuanting Zhang , Xingyuan Yuan

Interpretable rationales for model predictions are crucial in practical applications. We develop neural models that possess an interpretable inference process for dependency parsing. Our models adopt instance-based inference, where…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Hiroki Ouchi , Jun Suzuki , Sosuke Kobayashi , Sho Yokoi , Tatsuki Kuribayashi , Masashi Yoshikawa , Kentaro Inui

Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Johannes De Smedt , Anton Yeshchenko , Artem Polyvyanyy , Jochen De Weerdt , Jan Mendling

Explainable AI is increasingly employing argumentation methods to facilitate interactive explanations between AI agents and human users. While existing approaches typically rely on predetermined human user models, there remains a critical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Yinxu Tang , Stylianos Loukas Vasileiou , William Yeoh

Deep learning algorithms have recently gained significant attention due to their impressive performance. However, their high complexity and un-interpretable mode of operation hinders their confident deployment in real-world safety-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Konstantinos P. Panousis , Dino Ienco , Diego Marcos

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Machine learning models are increasingly integrated into societally critical applications such as recidivism prediction and medical diagnosis, thanks to their superior predictive power. In these applications, however, full automation is…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Vivian Lai , Samuel Carton , Chenhao Tan

Climate change impacts a broad spectrum of human resources and activities, necessitating the use of climate models to project long-term effects and inform mitigation and adaptation strategies. These models generate multiple datasets by…

Concept bottleneck models (CBMs) are a class of interpretable neural network models that predict the target response of a given input based on its high-level concepts. Unlike the standard end-to-end models, CBMs enable domain experts to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Sungbin Shin , Yohan Jo , Sungsoo Ahn , Namhoon Lee