Related papers: Oscillation in the SIRS model
In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…
Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a…
To describe the dynamics of social distancing during pandemics, we follow previous efforts to combine basic epidemiology models (e.g. SIR - Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) with game and economy theory tools. We present an extension of…
Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…
We study the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent forcing using analytic techniques which allow us to disentangle the interaction of stochasticity and external forcing. The model is formulated as a…
We investigate the long-time dynamics of a SIR epidemic model with infinitely many pathogen variants infecting a homogeneous host population. We show that the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ of the pathogen can be defined in that…
This paper studies the spread dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and varying population size, which is formulated as a piecewise deterministic Markov process. A threshold dynamic determined by the basic…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…
We consider a simple stochastic model for the spread of a disease caused by two virus strains in a closed homogeneously mixing population of size N. The spread of each strain in the absence of the other one is described by the stochastic…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
We propose a novel slow-fast SIRS compartmental model with demography, by coupling a slow disease spreading model and a fast information and misinformation spreading model. Beside the classes of susceptible, infected and recovered…
We study global dynamics of an SIR model with vaccination, where we assume that individuals respond differently to dynamics of the epidemic. Their heterogeneous response is modeled by the Preisach hysteresis operator. We present a condition…
We study the class of SIS epidemics on temporal networks and propose a new activity-driven and adaptive epidemic model that captures the impact of asymptomatic and infectious individuals in the network. In the proposed model, referred to as…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
This paper is concerned with the robustness of the sustained oscillations predicted by an epidemic ODE model defined on contact networks. The model incorporates the spread of awareness among individuals and, moreover, a small inflow of…
In this article, we introduce an infinite-dimensional deterministic SIS model which takes into account the heterogeneity of the infections and the social network among a large population. We study the long-time behavior of the dynamic. We…