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Since the extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behaviour of the distribution function, the estimation of EVI is a very important topic in extreme value theory. Recent developments in the estimation of EVI along with covariates have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Takuma Yoshida

This paper considers estimation and inference about tail features when the observations beyond some threshold are censored. We first show that ignoring such tail censoring could lead to substantial bias and size distortion, even if the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-25 Yulong Wang , Zhijie Xiao

We develop a new extreme value theory for repeated cross-sectional and panel data to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals (CIs) for conditional extremal quantiles from a fixed number $k$ of nearest-neighbor tail observations.…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-21 Yuya Sasaki , Yulong Wang

Extreme value theory offers a statistical framework for quantifying the risk of rare events, with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution providing the canonical limit model for univariate threshold exceedances. In many applications,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Mirco Lescart , Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 John H. J. Einmahl , Laurens de Haan , Deyuan Li

In this paper, nonparametric estimation of the conditional Weibull-tail coefficient when the variable of interest is right random censored is addressed. A Weissman-type estimator of conditional extreme quantile is also proposed. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-12 Justin Ushize Rutikange , Aliou Diop

Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Yongxin Li , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Hansheng Wang

Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-24 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes , Mark M. Meerschaert

This paper addresses the problem of estimating, in the presence of random censoring as well as competing risks, the extreme value index of the (sub)-distribution function associated to one particular cause, in the heavy-tail case.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-20 Julien Worms , Rym Worms

This paper presents two results concerning uniform confidence intervals for the tail index and the extreme quantile. First, we show that it is impossible to construct a length-optimal confidence interval satisfying the correct uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Yuya Sasaki , Yulong Wang

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-05 Pasquale Cirillo , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-29 Jose Carlos Araujo Acuna , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

We consider the Gumbel or extreme value statistics describing the distribution function p_G(x_max) of the maximum values of a random field x within patches of fixed size. We present, for smooth Gaussian random fields in two and three…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 S. Colombi , O. Davis , J. Devriendt , S. Prunet , J. Silk

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

For extreme value estimation we propose to use a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the center and generalized Pareto densities for the tails. Due to the randomness in the center and a heavy tailed density in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-01 Jairo Fuquene

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-14 Simon Guillotte , Francois Perron , Johan Segers