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Related papers: Bayesian nonparametric copulas with tail dependenc…

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We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-19 Shaobo Han , Xuejun Liao , David B. Dunson , Lawrence Carin

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 Linda Mhalla , Thomas Opitz , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Identifying groups of variables that may be large simultaneously amounts to finding out which joint tail dependence coefficients of a multivariate distribution are positive. The asymptotic distribution of a vector of nonparametric,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-28 Maël Chiapino , Anne Sabourin , Johan Segers

Many econometric models can be analyzed as finite mixtures. We focus on two-component mixtures and we show that they are nonparametrically point identified by a combination of an exclusion restriction and tail restrictions. Our…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-15 Marc Henry , Koen Jochmans , Bernard Salanié

In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Luis E. Nieto-Barajas

Several studies on heritability in twins aim at understanding the different contribution of environmental and genetic factors to specific traits. Considering the National Merit Twin Study, our purpose is to correctly analyse the influence…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-04 Luciana Dalla Valle , Fabrizio Leisen , Luca Rossini

In the field of finance, insurance, and system reliability, etc., it is often of interest to measure the dependence among variables by modeling a multivariate distribution using a copula. The copula models with parametric assumptions are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Lu Lu , Sujit Ghosh

We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-04 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 David L. Carl , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Copula models are flexible tools to represent complex structures of dependence for multivariate random variables. According to Sklar's theorem (Sklar, 1959), any d-dimensional absolutely continuous density can be uniquely represented as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Clara Grazian , Luciana Dalla Valle , Brunero Liseo

When modeling multivariate phenomena, properly capturing the joint extremal behavior is often one of the many concerns. Archimax copulas appear as successful candidates in case of asymptotic dependence. In this paper, the class of Archimax…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-23 Simon Chatelain , Samuel Perreault , Johanna G. Nešlehová , Anne-Laure Fougères

We propose a new method for estimating the extreme quantiles for a function of several dependent random variables. In contrast to the conventional approach based on extreme value theory, we do not impose the condition that the tail of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-25 Jinguo Gong , Yadong Li , Liang Peng , Qiwei Yao

Normal copula with a correlation coefficient between $-1$ and $1$ is tail independent and so it severely underestimates extreme probabilities. By letting the correlation coefficient in a normal copula depend on the sample size, H\"usler and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-04 Xin Liao , Liang Peng , Zuoxiang Peng , Yanting Zheng

Copula modeling consists in finding a probabilistic distribution, called copula, whereby its coupling with the marginal distributions of a set of random variables produces their joint distribution. The present work aims to use this…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-04-24 Pierre Nazé

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-26 Pamela M. Chiroque-Solano , Fernando A. S. Moura

We propose a copula-based measure of asymmetry between the lower and upper tail probabilities of bivariate distributions. The proposed measure has a simple form and possesses some desirable properties as a measure of asymmetry. The limit of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-05 Shogo Kato , Toshinao Yoshiba , Shinto Eguchi

In this paper, we develop a comprehensive asymptotic and bootstrap theory for checkerboard-based estimation of lower and upper tail copulas under unknown marginal distributions. The estimator is constructed via local bilinear (checkerboard)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Mayukh Choudhury , Debraj Das , Sujit Ghosh

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-22 Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc A. Coram