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Classification tasks usually assume that all possible classes are present during the training phase. This is restrictive if the algorithm is used over a long time and possibly encounters samples from unknown classes. The recently introduced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-18 Edoardo Vignotto , Sebastian Engelke

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Grace Burtenshaw , Joe Lane , Meagan Carney

Extreme value analysis (EVA) is a statistical method that studies the properties of extreme values of datasets, crucial for fields like engineering, meteorology, finance, insurance, and environmental science. EVA models extreme events using…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-10-15 Kumiko Hayashi , Nobumichi Takamatsu , Shunki Takaramoto

Although the fundamental probabilistic theory of extremes has been well developed, there are many practical considerations that must be addressed in application. The contribution of this thesis is four-fold. The first concerns the choice of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-28 Brian Bader

Extreme value theory (EVT) is well suited to model extreme events, such as floods, heatwaves, or mechanical failures, which is required for reliability assessment of systems across multiple domains for risk management and loss prevention.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-15 Shehzaib Irfan , Nabeel Ahmad , Alexander Vinel , Daniel F. Silva , Shuai Shao , Nima Shamsaei , Jia Liu

The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Marco Marani , Enrico Zorzetto

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

We conduct a non asymptotic study of the Cross Validation (CV) estimate of the generalization risk for learning algorithms dedicated to extreme regions of the covariates space. In this Extreme Value Analysis context, the risk function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Anass Aghbalou , Patrice Bertail , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

Recent advances in quantum computing have significantly accelerated research into quantum-assisted information retrieval and recommender systems, particularly in solving feature selection problems by formulating them as Quadratic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Jiayang Niu , Qihan Zou , Jie Li , Ke Deng , Mark Sanderson , Yongli Ren

Extreme events such as natural and economic disasters leave lasting impacts on society and motivate the analysis of extremes from data. While classical statistical tools based on Gaussian distributions focus on average behaviour and can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-01 Michele Nguyen , Almut E. D. Veraart , Benoit Taisne , Tan Chiou Ting , David Lallemant

Ensuring safety is a critical challenge in applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) to real-world scenarios. Constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) addresses this by maximizing returns under predefined constraints, typically formulated as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Shiqing Gao , Yihang Zhou , Shuai Shao , Haoyu Luo , Yiheng Bing , Jiaxin Ding , Luoyi Fu , Xinbing Wang

We present the methods employed by team `Uniofbathtopia' as part of the Data Challenge organised for the 13th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis (EVA2023), including our winning entry for the third sub-challenge. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-22 Henry Elsom , Matthew Pawley

It is often desirable to be able to recognize when inputs to a recognition function learned in a supervised manner correspond to classes unseen at training time. With this ability, new class labels could be assigned to these inputs by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-23 Ethan M. Rudd , Lalit P. Jain , Walter J. Scheirer , Terrance E. Boult

Extreme value analysis in the presence of censoring is receiving much attention as it has applications in many disciplines, including survival and reliability studies. Estimation of extreme value index (EVI) is of primary importance as it…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-03 Richard Minkah , Tertius de Wet , Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

We propose a novel neural network architecture that enables non-parametric calibration and generation of multivariate extreme value distributions (MEVs). MEVs arise from Extreme Value Theory (EVT) as the necessary class of models when…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-03 Ali Hasan , Khalil Elkhalil , Yuting Ng , Joao M. Pereira , Sina Farsiu , Jose H. Blanchet , Vahid Tarokh

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-14 Massimiliano Ignaccolo , Marco Marani

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

Proper determination of the transmission rate in ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) needs to incorporate a confidence interval (CI) for the estimated parameters due to the large amount of data required for their accurate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Threshold selection plays a key role for various aspects of statistical inference of rare events. Most classical approaches tackling this problem for heavy-tailed distributions crucially depend on tuning parameters or critical values to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-07 Laura Fee Schneider , Andrea Krajina , Tatyana Krivobokova

Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Kai Chang , Themistoklis P. Sapsis