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Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Yizhen Guo , Tian Zhou , Wanyi Jiang , Bo Wu , Liang Sun , Rong Jin

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of extreme events is critical for resource planning and disaster mitigation under accelerating climate change. However, such predictions remain challenging due to complex multi-sphere…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Bin Mu , Yuxuan Chen , Shijin Yuan , Bo Qin , Hao Guo

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-13 Zhanxiang Hua , Yutong He , Chengqian Ma , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Diffusion models have gained attention for their ability to represent complex distributions and incorporate uncertainty, making them ideal for robust predictions in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. In this study, we develop and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Yilin Zhuang , Sibo Cheng , Karthik Duraisamy

Data-driven medium-range weather forecasting has attracted much attention in recent years. However, the forecasting accuracy at high resolution is unsatisfactory currently. Pursuing high-resolution and high-quality weather forecasting, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Lei Chen , Fei Du , Yuan Hu , Fan Wang , Zhibin Wang

Accurate precipitation forecasting is essential for hydrometeorological risk management, especially for anticipating extreme rainfall that can lead to flash flooding and infrastructure damage. This study introduces a diffusion-based deep…

As climate change intensifies, the shift to cleaner energy sources becomes increasingly urgent. With wind energy production set to accelerate, reliable wind probabilistic forecasts are essential to ensure its efficient use. However, since…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Jean-Sébastien Giroux , Simon-Philippe Breton , Julie Carreau

Rapid urbanization demands accurate and efficient monitoring of turbulent wind patterns to support air quality, climate resilience and infrastructure design. Traditional sparse reconstruction and sensor placement strategies face major…

As our planet is entering into the "global boiling" era, understanding regional climate change becomes imperative. Effective downscaling methods that provide localized insights are crucial for this target. Traditional approaches, including…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-08 Fenghua Ling , Zeyu Lu , Jing-Jia Luo , Lei Bai , Swadhin K. Behera , Dachao Jin , Baoxiang Pan , Huidong Jiang , Toshio Yamagata

The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Haiwen Guan , Moein Darman , Dibyajyoti Chakraborty , Troy Arcomano , Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Romit Maulik

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…

A fundamental challenge in numerical weather prediction is to efficiently produce high-resolution forecasts. A common solution is applying downscaling methods, which include dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling, to the outputs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Honglu Sun , Hao Jing , Zhixiang Dai , Sa Xiao , Wei Xue , Jian Sun , Qifeng Lu

Diffusion models are the mainstream approach for time series generation tasks. However, existing diffusion models for time series generation require retraining the entire framework to introduce specific conditional guidance. There also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Mingchun Sun , Rongqiang Zhao , Hengrui Hu , Songyu Ding , Jie Liu

Scene flow estimation, which aims to predict per-point 3D displacements of dynamic scenes, is a fundamental task in the computer vision field. However, previous works commonly suffer from unreliable correlation caused by locally constrained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Jiuming Liu , Guangming Wang , Weicai Ye , Chaokang Jiang , Jinru Han , Zhe Liu , Guofeng Zhang , Dalong Du , Hesheng Wang

Diffusion models have recently shown promise in time series forecasting, particularly for probabilistic predictions. However, they often fail to achieve state-of-the-art point estimation performance compared to regression-based methods.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Hang Ding , Xue Wang , Tian Zhou , Tao Yao

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative frameworks by progressively adding noise to data through a forward process and then reversing this process to generate realistic samples. While these models have achieved strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Xingzhuo Guo , Yu Zhang , Baixu Chen , Haoran Xu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the…